September is here and that means the NFL starts in just a few days.

There will be real football on our screens, not just preseason or college games, but real NFL games, starting with the Ravens’ NFL Kickoff game at the Chiefs on Thursday. Maybe there will be an appearance by Taylor Swift too – who knows?

The start of the NFL season means we can use my NFL projection model to bet on some games throughout the season, just like I have done for the past few seasons. Let’s look at how we’ve done in recent years.

Last year’s record: 48-47-1, -1.25 units, -1.2% ROI
Overall balance: 110-101-2, +0.79 units, 0.3% ROI

This week’s card is a little small to start with. There’s at least one game I’m holding off on for a minute to see how the market plays out, but I’ll add it soon, and there are a few others I’m keeping an eye on as well. I can promise there will be more spread betting than total betting early in the year, as I’m not entirely sure what the scoring environment will be like. In case you didn’t watch preseason or just forgot, the NFL has new kickoff rules this year. If I had to guess, we’ll see a slight increase in scoring numbers this year due to the new rule. How much? Only time will tell.

Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter (@amock419) for all updates. If you have any questions, please reach out to us via social media or in the comments. As always, compare prices to find the best rates as this will win you more money in the long run!

Best bets for NFL Week 1

All games involve betting one unit on favorites to win and one unit on underdogs. I also share a “worst betting line” which is the last number I would bet on before the game no longer has enough value to place a bet on.

Buffalo Bills -6 (-110) vs. Arizona Cardinals

I’m really supposed to believe the Cardinals will improve enough to be less than a touchdown underdog in Buffalo? Call me skeptical. Josh Allen is still Josh Allen, and while the Bills have a questionable receiver group, I’m not sure the Cardinals have the defense to make that happen. The Cardinals’ defense ranks in the bottom five in my model, and even with their high offensive potential, that limits their ability to stay within that number.

Worst betting odds: Invoices -6.5 (-110)

Seattle Seahawks -6 (-110) vs. Denver Broncos

Listen, Bo Nix had a good preseason and all, but I’m supposed to believe a rookie quarterback is going to step up and cover in a hostile environment against one of the toughest defenses in football? I don’t think so. I expect the Broncos to be very passive on offense to make it easier for Nix to start the season. As for Seattle’s offense, I think they could make a great play against a pretty bad Broncos defense. If you can find a biggest win market, the Seahawks could be the best value on the field.

Worst betting odds: Seahawks -6 (-115)

Teaser of the week

Last year’s record: 8-5, +2.00 units, 15.4% ROI

Colts +8.5/Cowboys +8.5 (-120)

(Photo by Josh Allen: Rich Barnes / Getty Images)