The opening week of the 2024 NFL season brought plenty of action — but also overreaction. While some teams performed better than others in their season openers, the Lombardi Trophy will not be awarded in Week 1. Ultimately, the championship will be won by the team that shows perseverance and consistency during the grueling journey to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans. In the early stages of the season, teams are still testing their strategies, integrating their new players, and establishing their identity.

Regardless, there is still a lot of learning to be learned from the decisions and results of Week 1. This season, the opening week provided insight into questions swirling around quarterbacks across the league. Some doubts were put to rest, others reinforced.

There was significant turnover at the quarterback position this offseason. In addition to a handful of experienced quarterbacks who changed teams as free agents, teams selected a record number of quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft. So far, many of their debuts have not gone as hoped.

There are many things that can be learned by looking at each quarterback’s average air yards per attempt, which is the average distance a pass travels before being caught by its intended target.

The number of air yards per attempt can be an indication of a struggling quarterback, but it can also go a long way in predicting the momentum of an offense. Coaches who don’t trust their quarterbacks or offenses that lack sufficient weapons may have trouble getting the ball far. In Week 1, many of the quarterbacks who struggled were also the ones who posted the fewest air yards per attempt.

If air yards can predict future success, some teams could advance to the postseason regardless of the outcome of their Week 1 game. Here’s what the NFL standings would look like if sorted by air yards per attempt after the first game of the season.

* indicates the division winner
^ indicates a wildcard team

The AFC South loved throwing long balls in Week 1, and three of the four teams made it to those hypothetical playoffs. In some cases, those postseason placements don’t seem too far-fetched — Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and CJ Stroud are all expected to play deep in the postseason. In other cases, like the Las Vegas Raiders with Gardner Minshew, things don’t seem quite so realistic.

Only five AFC quarterbacks averaged 5.0 or more air yards per attempt in Week 1. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson led the league but was the only quarterback with at least 5 air yards per attempt who did not win in Week 1. Richardson’s 163 total air yards ranked third behind Houston Texans quarterback CJ Stroud (172) and San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (167). He also posted a below-average success rate, completing just nine of 19 pass attempts (47 percent). Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields also averaged more than 5 air yards per attempt, but both failed to top 200 passing yards, and only Stroud completed at least 20 pass attempts.

Mahomes’ 4.3 air yards per attempt were a product of the Kansas City Chiefs’ offensive game. With the addition of speedsters Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown, the Chiefs’ offense focused on opening up short and intermediate passing lanes so receivers could make dynamic plays with the ball in their hands. Mahomes finished with 291 passing yards, but 171 of those came after the catch. In the same game, Lamar Jackson was forced to switch to the quick passing game due to pass defense issues.

One name in particular stands out: Deshaun Watson. According to ESPN Analytics, the Cleveland Browns quarterback hasn’t completed a single pass of more than 5 yards in the first two quarters. He’s only completed two of his 11 pass attempts of more than 10 yards. If things continue to trend in this direction, the Browns may have to consider a quarterback change.

* indicates the division winner
^ indicates a wildcard team

Compared to the AFC, the NFC has a significant drop in air yards per attempt. Only six quarterbacks threw more than 4 air yards per attempt, compared to eight quarterbacks in the AFC. Five of those six NFC quarterbacks led their teams to victory. Only Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love had more than 4 air yards per attempt, but was unable to lead his team to victory. Love completed only 50 percent of his passes in the Green Bay Packers’ loss in Brazil.

The NFC East seemed to focus on the short passing game — three of the teams ranked in the bottom five. The Philadelphia Eagles lead the division despite being ranked just ninth in the conference. Some quarterbacks and teams played well, but they either weren’t able to pass the ball far or didn’t need to. Dak Prescott didn’t have to do much after the Dallas Cowboys took an early lead with a 33-17 win over the Browns. New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones had the worst performance in the division.

Some of the short passes were intentional. Coaches usually tend to get rookies into a rhythm with easy reads and quick throws in their first start. The Chicago Bears and Washington Commanders both obviously followed this recipe with Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels, the two top picks in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Regardless of the passing issues in Week 1, these quarterbacks and teams still have plenty of time to turn things around. The Eagles began the 2023 season with a 10-1 record but slumped as the season progressed. The Chiefs, on the other hand, held a 9-6 record going into the final two games of the regular season and eventually won the Super Bowl.