Week 5 of the NFL season begins with an NFC South matchup between the division-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) and the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) on “Thursday Night Football” (8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video). ).

Both teams earned victories, with the Buccaneers beating the Eagles and the Falcons catching the Saints with a 58-yard field goal with two seconds left.

The Falcons entered Thursday’s match as 2.5-point favorites (O/U 42.5), but the line has since dropped to -1.5. The Buccaneers (+185 to win the NFC South) and Falcons (+160) split the series last season, with each team winning on the road.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Game lines

Spread: Falcons -1.5
Money line: Falcons (-125), Buccaneers (+105)
Over/Under: 43.5

Distribution in the first half: Falcons -0.5 (+102), Buccaneers +0.5 (-125)
Buccaneers Total Points: 20.5 (above -120/below -110)
Falcons total points: 21.5 (above -120/below -110)

The props

Passing by

Kirk Cousins ​​total passing yards: 224.5 (above -125/below -105)
Cousins’ total passing TDs: 1.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Baker Mayfield’s total passing yards: 249.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Mayfield’s total passing TDs: 1.5 (above -120/below -110)

Rush

Bijan Robinson Total Rushing Yards: 69.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Bucky Irving’s total rushing yards: 44.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Rachaad White Total Rushing Yards: 34.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Tyler Allgeier Total Rushing Yards: 34.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

Reception

Mike Evans total receiving yards: 59.5 (above -130/below +100)
Chris Godwin receiving total yards: 69.5 (above -110/below -120)
Drake London total receiving yards: 69.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Darnell Mooney total receiving yards: 44.5 (above -125/below -105)
Kyle Pitt’s total receiving yards: 29.5 (above -125/below -105)
Cade Otton total receiving yards: 29.5 (above -110/below -120)
Robinson total receiving yards: 29.5 (above -110/below -130)
Total white reception yards: 19.5 (above -120/below -110)

Anita Marks’ selection

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Buccaneers-Falcons UNDER 43.5 (-105)

It was a slow start to the season for the offense. The underdog in prime time is 8-7 so far this season 78-49-1 in the last three seasons. The Buccaneers are dealing with a plethora of injuries and are on the road, where they are 6-4 since the start of last year. Both defenses are solid. Expect a nap on Thursday evening.

Bucky Irving any time TD (+140)

There’s a lot of excitement surrounding the Buccaneers’ backfield and Irving’s larger role. Rachaad White is still faster than Irving, but on Sunday against the Eagles the gap narrowed to 45 snaps for White and 32 for Irving. Irving ran the ball 10 times (the same number of runs as White) for 49 yards and a TD. More importantly, he did it all five of Tampa’s red zone rushing attempts in the game. He could play an even bigger role on Thursday night against the Falcons.

Chris Godwin OVER 69.5 yards (-110), Cade Otton OVER 29.5 yards (-120)

I expect Godwin and Otton Baker to be Mayfield’s primary targets considering Tampa’s offense is a hospital ward. Wideouts Mike Evans (knee/calf), Trey Palmer (concussion) and Jalen McMillan (ankle) are all dealing with injuries, and Sterling Shepard was just released from the practice squad. Promote those who are healthy in a short work week. The Falcons’ defense is weak against the slot, where both Godwin and Otton run the majority of their routes.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info

• The Buccaneers are 9-1 ATS since the start of last season (four straight wins). The Falcons are 0-3 ATS at home this season.

• The Buccaneers are 10-3 ATS as underdogs (8-1 ATS as underdogs) over the last two seasons and have played five straight games as Dogs. The Falcons have been the favorite since the start of last season at 3-10 ATS.

• Twelve of the last 16 meetings between these teams have gone over the total.

• Thirteen consecutive Falcons primetime games dating back to 2017 went under the total.

• Kirk Cousins ​​is 8-3 ATS in prime time games since 2020. Baker Mayfield is 3-8 ATS in his last 11 primetime games. The Falcons are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 primetime games.

• Since the start of the 2018 season, no player in the NFL has thrown more pass TDs against the blitz than Cousins ​​(68). The Buccaneers’ defense has blitzed 37% of the time this season, the third-highest rate in the NFL.

• The Unders in prime time are 78-49-1 over the last three seasons (8-7 this season).

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