This weekend’s college football schedule features some notable games that most fans will be eager to see.

New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston is not one of them.

But that’s the beauty of sitting back on a Saturday and betting on college football – there’s something for everyone.

And NMSU vs. Sam Houston is right up our alley in our quest to find the best ugly underdog every weekend.

Odds for New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston

Prediction for New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston

It has been an impressive start to 2024 for Sam Houston. The Bearkats are 2-1, with their only loss coming away from UCF.

But it wasn’t just the start to this season that was remarkable; Sam Houston also finished the 2023 season – its first season as an FBS school – in style.

The Bearkats started last season with eight straight losses, but finished the season with three wins in their final four games when things started to come together.

With more luck—four of SHSU’s losses last fall were by one point—this team could have finished .500 in its first year as an FBS program.

Sam Houston carried that positive momentum into 2024, following up the loss at UCF with wins over Rice and Hawaii.

These results, combined with a strong finish in 2023, have the betting market believing that this team could cause trouble in Conference USA. The Bearkats are 16.5-point favorites against New Mexico State (1-2) on Saturday.

While it’s clear that Sam Houston is currently a much better team than NMSU, it seems like the market is exaggerating that number a bit.

First of all, the Bearkats are not necessarily the team you want to bet on to cover these big spreads.

They’ve played Roast Rice and Hawaii, but they want to keep the ball on the ground on offense. Sam Houston has run the ball on nearly 60% of its plays, which keeps the clock ticking and shortens the game.

This offense is not only very strong on the run, but also more methodical than explosive. Sam Houston ranks 89th in plays of 10 yards and 93rd in plays of 20 yards this season.

New Mexico State’s numbers tell the story of a struggling program with a struggling defense, but the Aggies have had a rough (by their standards) start to 2024.

Betting on college football?

They faced Fresno State, one of the best teams outside the Power Four, and Liberty, the best team in C-USA, and also had a date with Southeastern Missouri.

They were beaten by Fresno State but held on to Liberty by one point. This loss gives us hope that they can remain respectable against a trendy Sam Houston team.

The Bet: New Mexico State +16.5 (-110, Caesars)

Why you can bet on the New York Post

Michael Leboff rates the EPL, NHL, golf and everything else except the NFL and NBA for the NY Post. He has won 49.73 units on EPL bets, giving him a 7.17% ROI.