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Nasdaq and S&P 500 experience worst week of the year after volatile start to September
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Nasdaq and S&P 500 experience worst week of the year after volatile start to September

US stocks sold off on Friday following a weak jobs report for August, but one economist predicts volatility will continue in the coming months.

“I think we’re probably in an environment now where volatility is going to remain high,” said Michael Darda, chief economist and macro strategist at Roth Capital Partners, on Yahoo Finance’s “Stocks in Translation” podcast. “The risk of a major decline and/or correction is pretty high.”

Darda rejected the idea that the U.S. economy would experience a “soft landing,” a scenario in which higher interest rates would lead to lower inflation without significantly affecting economic growth.

“We’re skating on a layer of ice that’s a little thinner than many people realize,” he said.

Darda pointed to the rising unemployment rate and increased earnings expectations, both of which contributed to the stock market slumps in early August and September.

“It’s not unprecedented that there is a downturn that looks like a soft landing and then eventually a recession emerges,” he said. “It’s kind of unexpected now because many have been lulled into the idea that the soft landing is going to be a permanent state for the business cycle. Equity market valuations reflected that over the summer.”

“But there are some cracks in the business cycle,” he warned, noting that expectations for the economy, companies and the stock market remained at “super-high” levels.

But it wasn’t just the income. The labor market also tells a special story.

Last month, the July jobs report spooked markets after unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.3%, the highest in nearly three years. The increase also triggered a closely watched recession indicator, the so-called Sahm rule.

Although unemployment fell slightly to 4.2 percent in August, Darda warned that the accelerating rise in unemployment was still “a little worrying.”

“4.3 percent is still an incredibly low unemployment rate that looks pretty good in historical context,” he explained. “The problem, if there is a problem at all, is that we went from a cyclical low of 3.4 percent to 4.3 percent.”

“These kinds of moves and their magnitude tell us that if the economy is still growing, it is growing below trend or below the growth rate of potential,” he said. “The line between that and an actual recession is extraordinarily thin.”

Read more here.

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