Bob Pockrass

FOX NASCAR Insider

Could things get any worse in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs after Harrison Burton’s improbable win Saturday night at Daytona?

The Cup Series playoffs feature 16 drivers: the regular season champion and the next 15 drivers ranked by wins, with points deciding the tie.

All three drivers with a shot at the regular season title are among the 13 drivers who have won a race this year and reached the playoffs, meaning there are still three points spots up for grabs before the regular season finale next Sunday in Darlington.

So who is in, who is on the brink and who wants to win at all costs?

These 13 drivers with wins are: Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin, William Byron, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Joey Logano, Daniel Suarez, Austin Cindric and Harrison Burton.

Five winless drivers are competing for the three spots: Martin Truex Jr., Ty Gibbs, Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace and Ross Chastain.

“I should have won several times this year, but I didn’t,” Wallace said. “We don’t even deserve to be here, but we are. Next week we have to win. That’s all.”

NASCAR Cup Series: Harrison Burton wins a wild race in Daytona!

Here are the crucial scenarios for these drivers:

–Truex has a 58-point lead over Wallace, the first driver currently out. Truex is in the mix if there is no new winner at Darlington. Even with a new winner, he is in good shape, 19 points ahead of Ty Gibbs and 37 points ahead of Buescher. Truex has two career wins at Darlington but has finished no better than 18th in his last five starts there.

–Gibbs is 39 points ahead of Wallace and 18 points ahead of Buescher. If there is no new winner, Gibbs will secure a spot with a 20th or better finish at Darlington (and he probably wouldn’t have to do nearly as well). Gibbs is probably in a good position unless he crashes or has a mechanical problem at Darlington. He finished second at Darlington in May.

“We just have to have a good run,” Gibbs said. “We finished second there in the spring.”

“I think we have the speed to win, so I think it would be cool to get my first win at the Southern 500. That would be awesome.”

–Buescher has a 21-point lead over Wallace and 27 points over Chastain, currently in last place. This is likely the battle if there is no new winner. Buescher already suffered a setback at Darlington when he and Tyler Reddick clashed while battling for the win earlier this year. Buescher finished third at Darlington last year.

“We go home with the current points situation in Darlington – with a small lead,” said Buescher. “We know that we were really good there last time.”

–Wallace is 21 points behind Buescher in the battle for the final playoff spot. If Buescher runs poorly in the first two stages and Wallace can score points, he would have a good chance of catching him. That’s a big if. Wallace will most likely have to win. Wallace has finished in the top 10 four times in a row at Darlington, but has never finished better than fifth.

–Chastain is in a similar position to Wallace, 27 points behind. Darlington is a good track for Chastain, but he has only two top-five finishes there in Cup.

“I look at it as if we have another chance to win the Southern 500,” Chastain said. “That’s what I’m focused on.”

There are 17 other playoff-eligible drivers who must win at Darlington to make the playoffs: Austin Dillon (who has denied his appeal against NASCAR stripping him of playoff eligibility for his win at Richmond), Chase Briscoe, Kyle Busch, Todd Gilliland, Josh Berry, Michael McDowell, Carson Hocevar, Noah Gragson, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Erik Jones, Ryan Preece, Daniel Hemric, Justin Haley, Corey LaJoie, John Hunter Nemechek and Zane Smith.

Of them, Busch and Jones won Cup races in Darlington.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has covered motorsports for decades, including over 30 Daytona 500s, and has worked for ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene Magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @Subscribe.

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