The National Hurricane Center gives an area off the coast of the Carolinas a 30 percent chance of erosion over the next week. Whether it’s a name or not, the moisture will reach as far as the mid-Atlantic.

RALEIGH – Shortly after Hurricane Francine rains out over the Tennessee Valley, the Fox Forecast Center is monitoring an old frontal boundary off the coast of the Southeast that could be the focal point for the next tropical disturbance of the season.

The National Hurricane Center has given the region a low probability of development over the next week, but whether or not there is a cyclone, the Carolinas can expect rainy and at times stormy weather through the weekend and the first half of the work week.

Environmental conditions are not particularly conducive to rapid development, but some slow organization is possible as the disturbance propagates north and west back toward the coast.

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Due to the ongoing land flow, the impacts on the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas will not change whether the system develops into a cyclone or not.

Forecast models predict widespread rainfall of 5 to 12 centimeters, with locally higher amounts expected, especially east of Interstate 95. These include the coastal communities of Myrtle Beach in South Carolina and Wilmington and Morehead City in North Carolina.

Inland communities like Raleigh, Charlotte and even Richmond, Virginia, lower rainfall amounts are expected.

Expected rainfall in the southeast

(FOX Weather)

WATCH: HURRICANE ERNESTO’S THINNING CAUSES NORTH CAROLINA HOUSE TO COLLAPSE INTO OCEAN

All this movement in the ocean creates strong surf, an increased risk of backwash, and the possibility of further coastal erosion.

The coast of the Outer Banks and southeastern Virginia is very vulnerable to rough seas, as demonstrated by the swell caused by Hurricane Ernesto, which was over 1,000 miles away.

Waves triggered by the former Category 2 hurricane caused flooding along North Carolina Highway 12, the main thoroughfare through the islands, and at least one abandoned home collapsed into the sea.

After the collapse, parts of Cape Hatteras National Seashore were closed to swimming due to concerns about debris in the water.

So far, there is no indication from authorities that the surf will be larger than Ernesto’s or destroy more homes. However, the local weather service in Morehead City, North Carolina, has issued several warnings for beachgoers and boaters warning of the rough conditions.

WHEN DOES THE LAST HURRICANE USUALLY MEET THE COAST OF THE USA?

What else is being pursued in the tropics?

Elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin, the NHC is monitoring two features, but neither poses a significant threat to the country.

The first area is a complex of showers and thunderstorms known as Invest 94L.

“Invest” is simply the naming convention used by meteorologists to identify an area they are studying for possible tropical development.

Invest 94L is approaching the northern Leeward Islands and will increase shower activity, but the combination of shear and dry air is likely to limit the organization of the system.

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A second area that the NHC is monitoring is located approximately halfway between the Caribbean Sea and Africa and is designated Tropical Depression 7.

The tropical depression is expected to remain in the open Atlantic for the entire lifetime of the system and will not threaten any land masses.

The next system to be classified as a tropical storm will be called “Gordon.”

Typically, the seventh named system in the Atlantic basin forms around September 3, meaning that 2024 will be behind an average season in terms of the total number of named storms.

While the Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, September 10 is the date on which most hurricanes and tropical storms have occurred in historical records.

(FOX Weather)