The Mets will look to avoid disappointment when they return home from a 10-game road trip to host the Red Sox on Monday night.

According to FanGraphs, they began the journey with a 27.3% chance of making the playoffs.

But after a 7-3 record, they are now just one game away from a wild-card spot and have increased their chances of making the postseason by a hair to 29.7%.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, are moving in the opposite direction after going 3-7 in their last 10 games. They are 4 1/2 games behind Kansas City for the final wild-card spot in the American League.

New York is the favorite to win the series opener on Monday when Brayan Bello faces Luis Severino in what should be a well-attended Labor Day game.

Odds for Red Sox vs. Mets

Prediction for the game Red Sox vs. Mets

Severino has struggled to string together good starts since the All-Star break, posting a 4.43 ERA in his last 42 2/3 innings.

However, he has struck out 26.6% of the batters he faced and holds a quality xFIP of 3.56 during that span. He has also pitched to a .248 xBA and has probably been unlucky when batters hit .345.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 20% against Severino this season, which is the lowest of any qualified starter in MLB. He has allowed a slug rate of just .346 at Citi Field this season.

Severino was hit by a 100-mile-per-hour pitch in his last game against Arizona, but stayed in the game and didn’t let the 100-mph mark faze him, even though his stats looked ugly.

Thanks to Sean Manaea’s seven-inning start on Sunday, the Mets bullpen is in good shape heading into Monday’s game.

That’s good news for a staff that has seen some ugly breakdowns in recent weeks, including a collapse by Edwin Diaz in Severino’s last start.

Overall, however, the unit has a respectable ERA of 3.78 over the last month.

Since the beginning of August, the Red Sox have been a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of effectiveness against right-handed pitchers. They have a wRC+ of 104 and an OPS of .750 over the past month. They have thrown out strikeouts 25.6% of the time during that span and hold a hard-hit rate of 33.4%.

Aside from making a few too many free throws, Bello’s recent performance has been solid. He’s posted a 3.00 ERA and a 3.82 xFIP over his last five games. His hard-hit rate has dropped to just 33% during that time, while his strikeout rate has increased to 23%.

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Bello has struggled with runners in scoring position this season, allowing a .274 batting average compared to a .258 average in all at-bats. He has recently addressed that problem and is now being rewarded for it.

The Mets rank one spot ahead of the Red Sox (13th) with a wRC+ of 106 against right-handers over the last month. They have had strikeouts 26.1% of the time but a lot of hard contact (34.7%).

Tip for Red Sox vs. Mets

Both starters in this game were in top form and should benefit from the pitcher-friendly conditions at Citi Field. The forecast for the first pitch is 24 degrees, with the wind blowing toward home plate.

The Mets will also have to do without batter and former Red Sox star JD Martinez

This is a good time to bet that the game will go under 8.

Pick: Under 8 total runs (-115, DraftKings)