close
close

Gottagopestcontrol

Trusted News & Timely Insights

MLB odds, picks, best bets for Friday
Utah

MLB odds, picks, best bets for Friday

Thanks to Hurricane Helen, the Mets are facing a terrible scheduling situation.

With two consecutive games postponed this week, they must play a doubleheader in Atlanta on Monday.

A potential wildcard series for them would then begin on Tuesday, less than 24 hours after the end of the second game.

The journey would be strenuous, and burning high-value weapons in Monday’s matchups with playoff games the following three days would also be disastrous.

As the Mets (87-70) begin their three-game series in Milwaukee on Friday, they are one game ahead of the Braves (86-71) in the NL wild-card race and in a virtual tie with the Diamondbacks (88). -71) who played more games.

Mets vs Brewers odds

team Money line running line In total
Mets -115 -1.5 (+150) o7.5 (-115)
brewer -105 +1.5 (-180) u7.5 (-105)
Odds via bet365

Mets vs Brewers Prediction

With the Padres clinching the top wild card, the Mets, Diamondbacks and Braves are fighting for the final two spots in the National League. Here are the tiebreakers heading into Friday’s game:

  • The Mets and Braves both win tiebreakers against the Diamondbacks.
  • Atlanta currently has the tiebreaker over the Mets with a 6-5 record in the series, with Monday’s doubleheader still to come.

There are realistic scenarios in which the Mets could pull out a win before Monday’s doubleheader. That would obviously be very beneficial, but these scenarios involve winning at least two out of three games against the Brewers.

The Mets have a good chance to win Friday’s game in Milwaukee with left-hander Sean Manaea on the mound facing veteran right-hander Frankie Montas.

Manaea helped lead the Mets’ midseason turnaround with a dominant stretch of play. He had another solid performance in his last win over the Phillies.

In 81 2/3 innings since the All-Star break, Manaea has posted a 3.09 ERA with a WHIP of just 0.87. He has a 2.36 ERA in his last five starts and is holding opponents to a batting average of just .133.

His baseline numbers in these outings are also strong (3.56 xFIP, .204 xBA).


Sean Manaea has a 6-2 record with a 2.77 ERA away from Citi Field this season.
Sean Manaea has a 6-2 record with a 2.77 ERA away from Citi Field this season. Getty Images

Opponents are hitting just .198 against him this season, which ranks third among qualified starters, behind only Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler and Houston’s Ronel Blanco.

Montas has struggled to post a 5.49 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star break.

In his last five starts, he had a 5.81 ERA, a 21.2 K-BB% and a .231 xBA.

During that span, he had a strand rate of 67.5% and allowed a HR/FB of 23.3% in those starts. His Pitching+ rating of 101 is also better than league average.

The Mets’ offense has been more effective than the Brewers’ of late and is expected to play near their top lineup with only Jeff McNeil unavailable for Friday’s game.

Over the last month, the Mets have posted a wRC+ of 108 compared to the Brewers’ 93.

The Mets have also posted a wRC+ of 107 in 1,740 plate appearances against right-handed hitters in the second half of the season, while Milwaukee has a wRC+ of 97 against left-handed hitters over the same period.


Find out everything you need to know about MLB betting


Choice between Mets and Brewers

Even though these games are technically meaningless for Milwaukee, don’t expect the Pat Murphy club to just go all out on Friday or in this series, as they would prefer to force the Mets to play meaningful games on Monday and into the Strong form to make it to the playoffs.

So while we should still expect the Brewers to play their best game on Friday night, backing the Mets at -130 with Manaea on the mound still seems to make sense.

Choose: Mets Moneyline (-115, BetMGM)

LEAVE A RESPONSE

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *