Temperatures are split in two weeks. Here in Michigan, we’ll have several summer-like days before a strong cold front brings a rush of fall-like temperatures.
In early September, Michiganders can enjoy very warm weather and fall weather in the same week, and this week certainly lives up to that scenario.
From today until Thursday, each day will be about three degrees warmer than the previous day. By Thursday afternoon, temperatures will reach 28 to 30 degrees.
Then the cold front will move across Michigan from northwest to southeast on Thursday night and Friday. That will be the coldest blast of the new fall. That’s perfectly normal and not a sign of a real winter cold at the beginning. In fact, we’ve had cool-downs in early September for the past decade, and then a multi-week pattern of warm to hot develops. We could see a cool-to-warm turnaround in the next few weeks after the cool-down at the end of this week.
All models show a very similar weather picture of much cooler air. The best way I can show you the warmth and then the much cooler air is with a temperature forecast at 5,000 feet. I like this because you don’t see the warm up/cool down/warm up yo-yo look of a surface temperature forecast. This forecast just shows you the true temperature trend. As our temperatures rise at 5,000 feet, temperatures here on the ground will rise as well. The same is true as cooler temperatures aloft eventually cool us down here on the ground.
Here’s the temperature forecast for 1,500 meters elevation. Watch as it warms up for a few days and then comes the icy plunge.
Temperature forecast at 5,000 feet (in Celsius) from today, September 3rd through Sunday, September 8thNOAA
What this means for us here: Summery days today through Thursday, a transition day on Friday and a very autumnal weekend.
Maximum temperature forecast from Tuesday, September 3rd to Sunday, September 8thNOAA
The high temperatures forecast for Saturday of just 10 degrees are probably a bit too cool. Great Lakes water temperatures are still at 15 degrees. A cool northwest wind will actually warm things up a bit as it crosses Lake Michigan. I’m expecting 15 degrees Saturday afternoon, but with rain showers the temperature may briefly drop to 10 degrees.
Whatever the details, we are in for a week in which summer gives way to fall.
Also, it looks like summer starts again next week.
