The Mets got two unexpected days off due to rain in the Atlanta area, largely due to Hurricane Helene, which is scheduled to hit Atlanta today. At most points in a season, two extra days off would be a welcome change. However, with a week left in the season and the Mets fighting for their playoff chances, the scheduling complications resulting from the postponed games could impact the postseason as well.

Let’s look at how things stand. Right now, the Mets have a slim one-game lead over the Braves after losing 5-1 at Truist Park on Tuesday. The weather forecast was already looking less than promising, making it a crucial game for New York, but they didn’t make it. With Atlanta foregoing any contingency plans and MLB not intervening, all sides seemed content to play on Wednesday, but rain eventually made that impossible, leading to the postponement.

Given the likely importance of the games, the Mets now face a doubleheader on Monday. Should they make the postseason, that would eliminate the intervening travel day, putting the Mets at a major disadvantage heading into October. Given that the Mets would likely travel to Milwaukee – which is especially frustrating since they play in Milwaukee this weekend and would have otherwise avoided unnecessary travel – or San Diego, this could pose a major problem for the Mets.

It’s possible that the games mean nothing more than the seedings, and Rob Manfred can then unilaterally decide that they don’t need to be played. Let’s examine this in more detail and see how the wild card standings stand:

• The Mets are one game ahead of Atlanta, with the tiebreaker still undecided. They have lost 6 of 11 games against the Braves in 2024 and would need to win Monday’s doubleheader to reach the tiebreaker.
• The Mets are tied with the Diamondbacks and have the tiebreaker, meaning they would finish ahead of Arizona if they finish 2024 with the same record.
• The Padres have a 3.5 game lead over the Mets and, barring a collapse, should secure the first Wild Card spot. San Diego also has a slim chance of winning the NL Wes, but the Dodgers could clinch the win with a victory tonight.

After a win on Wednesday night that clinched their series finale, Arizona has Thursday off before hosting the Padres at home. The Braves will host the Royals, weather permitting, starting Friday. The Royals still have a lot at stake as they are embroiled in their own battle for an AL wild-card spot. The Mets, on the other hand, face a Brewers team that has little to nothing at stake as they are now in third place in the NL after their loss on Wednesday and the Dodgers’ win. They will definitely host a wild-card series starting Tuesday.

The Mets currently have a magic number of four for the fifth and sixth Wild Card spots. Basically, any combination of four Mets wins and/or Diamondbacks/Braves losses will do them. There’s an added layer here as the Mets want to do everything they can to avoid those Monday games, and there are three games between now and then. So let’s look at what the Mets can do this weekend and how it affects their path forward.

1. Mets sweep the Brewers: This is obviously the optimal solution. A win means they stay at least tied with Arizona and one game ahead of Atlanta. This means that if the Mets sweep the Brewers and Arizona and/or Atlanta lose a game, the Mets are in and Monday’s games would only matter for seeding, at least for the Mets (the Braves and Diamondbacks could still be fighting for last place).
2. Mets win two of three games in Milwaukee: Also a good option, although a little less optimal. In this scenario, the Mets would at least secure a spot if Arizona and/or Atlanta lost two of three games in their respective series.
3. Mets lose two of three games in Milwaukee: In this case, the only way the Mets could secure a postseason spot before Monday would be to defeat either Arizona or Atlanta. Otherwise, the Mets would play on Monday.
4. Mets lose in Milwaukee: We probably won’t be thinking about the postseason if it gets that far, but if the Mets lose, the best they can hope for is that Arizona or Atlanta lose two of three games or get defeated, which would keep them in the race until Monday. That would give the Mets a magic number of two or one, which would still allow them to control their destiny until Monday, but it would require them to win the doubleheader.

It’s very difficult to determine New York’s path in the upcoming postseason, so it’s imperative for the Mets to do everything in their power to avoid a Monday doubleheader, which means they’ll have to be at their best in Milwaukee. Their rotation has been thrown into flux as Carlos Mendoza must not only figure out how to approach these three games, but Monday as well, while also considering a potential Wild Card series.

The team will almost certainly start the upcoming series with Sean Manaea, who was scheduled to face the Braves on Thursday. That’s the latest Manaea can pitch while still being available for a guaranteed Wild Card game. The Mets could then pitch either David Peterson or Jose Quintana on Saturday, which would also give that pitcher permission to pitch in Game 3 of a Wild Card round. Personally, I’m in favor of betting on the veteran here, especially since Peterson has been shakier of late. After all, the series would end with Peterson.

Things get more difficult from there. Depending on how the Mets stack up, they can either send Luis Severino into Monday’s doubleheader, which would leave them with a hole for Game 1 of the Wild Card round, especially since they’d be starting Tylor Megill in Game 2. If the Mets are forced to play but the game means nothing more than seeding, the Mets can (and will) rest Severino for Game 1 and start Tylor Megill in the first game of the doubleheader. This leaves the question of who they’d start in Game 2, but one hopes it won’t matter by then. The bigger concern is taxing the bullpen in a doubleheader before a postseason series.

Whatever the case, Monday’s doubleheader represents a huge inconvenience and challenge for New York as they both fight for survival and have to worry about roster management, extra travel and a depleted roster ahead of a best-of-three series. A lot is riding on these next three games in Milwaukee, and it will be interesting to see how Mendoza sets things up and approaches these games.