The likelihood of a new named storm forming in the Caribbean and moving into the Gulf of Mexico next week is increasing.

Since Thursday morning, the hurricane center has increased the probability of strengthening within the next seven days to 40%, with no chance of strengthening within the next two days.

“Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system slowly moves north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico during the middle of next week,” the meteorologists wrote.

Early computer models show an increasing likelihood that something could form in the spot south of the Yucatan and Cuba, but what exactly it might be — or where it would head — is an open question. The models aren’t very accurate without an actual storm to track, so they show a wide range of possibilities, from Mexico to Florida to the Bahamas.

“There’s a lot of speculation about what will happen in the Gulf next week, but at this point it’s just speculation. First we’ll have to see where and *if* a coherent system forms, but given what’s ahead, it’s worth double-checking the forecast,” wrote Michael Lowry, lead meteorologist for Local 10, on Twitter.

The next name on the list is Helene.