McKinsey’s technology trends

Here are the trends identified by McKinsey in July 2024 with the publication of its “Technology Trends Outlook 2024”:

• “The AI ​​revolution (generative AI, applied AI, industrialization of machine learning)
• Building the digital future (next generation software development, digital trust and cybersecurity)
• Future of computing and connectivity (augmented connectivity, immersive reality technologies, cloud and edge technologies, and quantum technologies)
• Cutting-edge technology (future of robotics, future of mobility, future of biotechnology, future of space technologies)
• A sustainable world (electrification and renewable energy, climate technologies beyond electrification and renewable energy)”

Technology trends at Gemini

Since generative AI tops McKinsey’s list, I thought I’d ask Gemini about the list. I listed the technologies and asked Gemini to rate the list. Here’s what Gemini said:

“Missing parts of McKinsey’s technology trends

McKinsey’s list provides a comprehensive overview of the most important technology trends, but there are some areas that could be expanded or supplemented:

Possible omissions

1. Human-centered technology: Although AI and robotics are mentioned, a broader focus on human-computer interaction, user experience (UX), and human-centered design could be beneficial. This includes areas such as augmented reality, virtual reality, and wearable technology.
2. Data and analytics beyond AI: Although AI is covered, there is a broader range of data and analytics tools and techniques that could be explored, including data management, privacy, data ethics, and advanced analytics methods such as causal inference and probabilistic programming.
3. Social and economic impacts of technology: It might be worth diving deeper into the societal impacts of technology, such as job losses, the digital divide and social inequality.
4. New technologies: While some emerging technologies are only briefly addressed, a separate category could be considered for truly breakthrough technologies such as synthetic biology, neurotechnology and advanced materials.
5. Geopolitics and Technology: The interface between technology and geopolitics, including issues such as supply chain resilience, national security and international technology standards, is becoming increasingly important.

Other trends to consider

1. Decentralization and Web3: The rise of blockchain, decentralized finance (DeFi), and decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) represents a significant shift in technology and economic models.
2. Digital health and biotechnology: The convergence of technology and healthcare is leading to breakthroughs in diagnostics, treatment and personalized medicine.
3. Education and skills development: The role of technology in education, including online learning, personalized learning and skills training for the future workforce, is critical.
4. Smart Cities and Urbanization: The use of technology to address urban challenges such as transportation, energy and public safety is a growing area.
5. Agriculture and food systems: The role of technology in improving agricultural productivity, food security and sustainability deserves more attention.”

Gemini obviously has his own ideas about what constitutes a technology trend. Then I asked Claude.

Claude’s technology trends

Here’s what Claude said about McKinsey’s list:

“Areas that need improvement:

1. Overlaps and ambiguities: Some categories, such as “shaping the digital future” and “cutting-edge technology,” seem broad and there is potential for overlap.
2. Lack of social impact: The list focuses heavily on technological development without explicitly addressing social impacts or ethical considerations.
3. Limited global perspective: The trends do not explicitly address the impact of these technologies on different regions of the world or where they are adopted differently.
4. Missing data-centric topics: Although AI is covered, data management, data protection, or big data analytics are not specifically mentioned.
5. Lack of human-centered technologies: Technologies that focus on human augmentation, health technology, or human-computer interaction are not explicitly mentioned.

Suggested improvements:

1. Reorganize categories: Create clearer and more specific categories to reduce overlap and improve clarity.
2. Add “Ethical and Responsible Technology” as a category: This could cover topics such as AI ethics, responsible innovation, and technology governance.
3. Include “Global adoption and impact of technologies”: discuss how these trends might manifest differently in developed and developing countries.
4. Add “Data-Centric Technologies”: Cover trends in data analytics, privacy-preserving technologies, and data management.
5. Include “Human-Centered Technologies”: Add a category for health technology, human augmentation, and advances in human-computer interaction.
6. Expand the sustainability scope: Include more specific trends such as circular economy technologies and regenerative technologies.
7. Add “democratization of technology”: Discuss trends in low-code/no-code platforms, citizen development, and accessible AI tools.
8. Consider ‘resilience technologies’: Given recent global events, technologies to support supply chain resilience, remote working and crisis management could be relevant.”

Well, there you have it, proof that Generative AI should be at the top of the list! Or maybe not. It all depends on perspective. (Or maybe Generative AI is biased by putting Generative AI first on the list!) But it does make you think about all the work that companies like McKinsey, Gartner, Forrester and all the others do to generate technology trends that our Generative AI friends can generate in a matter of seconds, doesn’t it? (Almost 100 Experts from McKinsey contributed to the latest trends report. Take a moment and ask Claude and his friends this question: “What key trends in digital technology should companies follow to stay competitive?”

Trends to take away

McKinsey identifies some thought-provoking trends. But like so many other technology trend reports from organizations and platforms such as Gartner Group, Forrester, Deloitte, IDC, Gemini, Claude, Chat and others, McKinsey often identifies the same trends as everyone else, especially generative AI. At the same time, generative AI itself identified some technologies that are not on every list (although there is some overlap). I’m sure Chat and Llama would have something to say about the lists as well. (A fun exercise would be to ask Claude, Gemini, Chat and Llama to challenge each other on their lists!)

Remember that trend lists represent hypotheses at a given point in time, not certainties. They shed a clear light on what respondents and analysts think is “hot” at the time they answer the questions, or when analysts use indicators like Google searches, job descriptions, VC investments, and patent filings to gauge importance – and all of that can change quickly, sometimes even overnight.

Lists illuminate our hypotheses, which are shaped by our information orbits. If we only read McKinsey reports, our understanding of trends will be greatly influenced, but if we are Gartner files, we will see the world differently. Maybe we should become generative AI files, which naturally represent all sources merged into one. (Unless it’s a hallucination.)

Maybe there’s a lesson to be learned from this. Maybe we should look at technology trends like professors who have no interest in the trend game. Professors who understand that “trends” are relatively abstract and transient, reflecting broad technology movements that will impact specific processes, functions, and industries over time. Some of the technologies will take hold sooner than others. Some will have lasting power. Some will disappear, and others will be delayed. Nobody knows. Remember the metaverse?

Regardless of roles, business technologists have an obligation to follow trends and be at least familiar with the technologies that could change the world – and just maybe. When I asked Chat to name the digital technology most likely to change the world in ten years, Chat replied: “Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning are often seen as the most widely adopted transformation technologies because of their extensive applications and potential to drive innovation in numerous areas..” Not entirely convinced, I asked Claude the same question. And this was Claude’s answer: “Based on current trends and developments, artificial intelligence (AI) is likely to be the digital technology with the greatest impact on the world in the next decade.” Gemini agreed: “Artificial intelligence is the digital technology most likely to dramatically change the world over the next decade. Its rapid evolution and widespread application across all industries make it a prime candidate for transformative change.”

There you have it. How many reports on technology trends do we really need?