The Toronto Blue Jays welcome the Miami Marlins to Rogers Center tonight as they open their final series of the season.

Jose Berrios has a stingy 1.42 ERA in three starts this month, and that’s a big reason why my Marlins vs. Blue Jays under predictions are positive. Read more in my MLB picks for Friday, September 27th.

Marlins vs Blue Jays Prediction

My best choice
Below 8.5 (-122 for PROLINE+)

My analysis

Although Jose Berrios ended his seven-game winning streak last Friday, the Toronto Blue Jays starter’s loss was sensational. The right-hander allowed just six hits and one earned run in six innings as the Jays were unable to provide him with support in a 1-0 loss to Tampa Bay.

After an 8-3 loss to the Yankees on August 3 in which he gave up six runs, Berrios played his best baseball of the season. In each of his last eight starts, he has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer while maintaining an impressive 1.51 ERA.

But as we saw in Berrios’ last start, he likely won’t get much run support from his offense. The Blue Jays have averaged just 2.63 runs per game over their last eight games, while scoring four runs or fewer in six of those games.

Nearly half of their runs in that span were driven in by either Alejandro Kirk (5 RBI) or Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3 RBI) – not a good recipe for team success.

This lackluster offense has led to the Jays going under in seven of their last eight games – a trend that I expect will continue in tonight’s series opener against the Miami Marlins.

Blue Jays star player prop

My best choice
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+125 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

Guerrero had a fantastic final month of the season, batting .333 with 13 RBI, tied for the team lead. While Kirk ended Toronto’s last streak with four RBIs in his last two games, we’re actually getting slightly better odds for a Vladdy RBI tonight, so I’m sticking with the tried and tested product.

Guerrero has five RBI in his last seven contests, but arguably deserves more as he is batting .433 with multiple hits in four of those games. The Marlins have the second-worst team ERA in the majors (4.77), so I like Vladdy’s chances of breaking out.

Marlins vs Blue Jays odds

Marlins vs Blue Jays live odds

Marlins vs. Blue Jays opening odds

• Money line: Miami +150 | Toronto -180
• running line: Miami +1.5 (-140) | Toronto -1.5 (+120)
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-105) | Below 8.5 (-115)

Marlins vs. Blue Jays Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis

• The Blue Jays were the heavy home favorite at -180 due to the pitching mismatch. That number rose to -222 by Friday morning, with 84% of bettors backing Toronto at the time of writing.
• Toronto is 7-1 in their last eight meetings against Miami.
• Today’s overall score started at 8.0, but inched up to 8.5 on several books. The Under has a record of 8-2 in Toronto’s last 10 games and a record of 4-1 in Adam Oller’s last five starts.

Marlins vs Blue Jays trend

The Under are 6-3 in their last nine meetings. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Blue Jays.

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