The theme of the last few weeks continues on the other side of the Atlantic: Several systems are struggling to find a footing as dry and sinking air quickly destroys organized storms.

This good news means we could get through the first full week of September – a normally busy week in hurricane season – without any organized tropical systems in the Atlantic. That’s the first time that’s happened in 30 years.

NHC reduces development opportunities for Caribbean cruisers

The disturbance we’ve been tracking since last Tuesday, now moving rapidly through the central Caribbean, lost its associated storm strength overnight. Models remain generally cautious on how it will develop as it moves westward, but there is a narrow window of opportunity in which it could attempt to organize as it approaches Central America. In general, slowing trade winds in the western Caribbean are supporting more thunderstorm growth – a process known as convergence, where winds pile up – and wind shear should remain relatively low and conducive. But given model trends and past difficulties, this is not expected to develop quickly.

Regardless, the impact will be heavy rains and a multi-day flood threat from this weekend into early next week, extending to parts of Belize, Guatemala, northern Honduras and southern Mexico.

There is a small chance that the southern Gulf of Mexico will recover next week, but at this point the probability is low. The more likely scenario is that the Gulf will move deeper into Mexico or toward the eastern Pacific next week.

The system poses no threat to South Florida.

Deep Atlantic recovers late next week

The Hurricane Center has recorded two disturbances in the open Atlantic today. Although we can see slow development in both systems through next week, neither will make landfall and computer models are unlikely to indicate robust development.

However, our primary global models suggest that it could pick up again in the deep Atlantic during the second half of next week into next weekend (the weekend of September 14). They are not yet in agreement on where it might develop, but the general trend shows a noticeable reduction in wind shear and an easing of the dryness plaguing the eastern Atlantic.

This is also broadly consistent with the return of the ascending branch of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which could bring more favourable conditions to the Atlantic towards the end of the month.

We will have more to say about this change shortly.