Supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo released his latest estimates for iPhone 16 shipments this morning, ahead of Apple’s event today where the new iPhone 16 lineup will finally be unveiled.

Kuo expects shipments of about 89 million iPhone 16 units in 2024, which is slightly less than the 91 million iPhone 15 units shipped in the same period last year. Since Apple is trying to order what it will sell, this suggests the company is not expecting a big increase in customer demand for the new phones.

iPhone 16 shipments will be slightly more upfront compared to iPhone 15, with more units shipping in August/September than last year. This is not a demand-driven increase, but simply because the 5x zoom lens initially brought lower returns when it was introduced for the Pro Max in 2023.

In total, according to Kuo, Apple will prepare 15 to 17 million phones for the pre-order period, if you count all models together.

In terms of mix, the iPhone 16 Pro Max will be the most popular model, accounting for 38% of shipments. The second most popular model is the iPhone 16 Pro, accounting for 30%. The base iPhone 16 comes in third with 26%, and the iPhone 16 Plus is well behind at just 6%.