Vice President Kamala Harris has suffered another setback in the polls. A recent survey shows her trailing former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, a district crucial to her chances of winning the presidency.
The latest setback came from a coefficient poll conducted between September 4 and 6, which showed Trump narrowly ahead among 889 likely voters in Pennsylvania. Trump received 48 percent support, Harris 46 percent, with a margin of error of three percent.
This poll was released just hours before the highly anticipated first presidential debate between the two candidates, scheduled to take place in Philadelphia, the state’s largest city since Harris won her party’s nomination in July. It will also be the first time Trump and Harris have appeared on the same stage.
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The most populous swing state in presidential elections has sided with the winner in the last two elections, each time by just tens of thousands of votes. Polls this year suggest Pennsylvania will be tied again in November.
The coefficient poll is the latest setback for Harris in Pennsylvania, where she also trailed Donald Trump in three polls conducted in late August. Earlier polls by Cygnal and Emerson College, conducted August 13-15, also had Trump one point ahead in the key swing state.
However, not all polls have Trump ahead. A Morning Consult poll conducted between August 30 and September 8 has Harris three percentage points ahead of Trump, with 49 percent support compared to 46 percent for Trump.
The race remains extremely close and it is too early to draw any firm conclusions. According to poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight, Harris is trailing Trump by just 0.7 percent, while RealClearPolling has the two candidates tied at 47.6 percent support each.
For Democrats, it will be crucial for Harris to make big gains in Philadelphia and its suburbs, especially in a city where blacks are the largest ethnic group, while also narrowing Trump’s lead among white voters in rural and small-town Pennsylvania.
A loss of Pennsylvania would make Harris’ path to the presidency much more difficult, as the state has 19 valuable votes in the Electoral College.
Both candidates know what is at stake and have visited Pennsylvania frequently. In August, Harris introduced her running mate, Tim Walz, in Philadelphia, with a rousing speech by Governor Josh Shapiro.
Trump survived an assassination attempt in Butler County on July 14 and has since returned to Pennsylvania four times, holding rallies in Harrisburg, Johnstown and Philadelphia. His speeches have focused largely on energy and criticism of Harris’ energy policies.
Harris has a lot at stake – since 1948, no Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania.
Before Harris became the Democratic nominee, most polls in the state had Trump ahead of President Joe Biden by 2 to 7 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.
