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JaKobe Walter, the fifth starter and more: Analyzing the Raptors’ rotation and depth chart
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JaKobe Walter, the fifth starter and more: Analyzing the Raptors’ rotation and depth chart

The Toronto Raptors have invited 20 players to training camp, which begins in Montreal in two weeks. You can’t invite more than that.

That seems odd considering the Raptors haven’t done much this offseason. From an in-and-out perspective, the most notable thing that happened was the departure of Gary Trent Jr. — and he signed a minimum-value contract. When you bring in three rookies with guaranteed contracts, things escalate quickly.

The outlook remains difficult to predict, as the Raptors have only three proven players who are 6’0″ or taller in Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl and Kelly Olynyk. (As always, Chris Boucher is hard to characterize.) With that limitation, it’s hard to put together a meaningful rotation. How far have we come since last year, huh?

Let’s try to figure a few things out. Here is my first attempt at looking at the Raptors depth chart.

Raptors Projected Roster, 2024-25

PG SG SF PF C

Immanuel Quickley

Gradey Dick

RJ Barrett

Scottie Barnes

Jakob Poeltl

Davion Mitchell

Bruce Brown

Ochai Agbaji

Chris Boucher

Kelly Olynyk

Jamal Shead

JaKobe Walter

Garrett Temple

Jonathan Mogbo

Brandon Carlson*

DJ box*

Jared Rhoden #

Jamison Battle #

Bruno Fernando %

Ulrich Chomche*

(* – for a two-way contract; # – for an exhibit 10 contract; % – for a non-guaranteed contract)

Who is the fifth starter?

Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Barnes and Poeltl are sure starters. In the NBA, five players must always be used, even at the start of the game.

First, let’s look at that quartet. Aside from Quickley, they have solid size and, with the combination of Barnes and Poeltl, they have the best interior defense the Raptors can field. They also have a surplus of playmakers with Barnes, Quickley and Barrett, the latter of whom had a 19.5% assist rate in 32 games with the Raptors, by far the best mark of his career.

This lineup lacks three-point shooting and perimeter defense. If you were only interested in shooting, you’d go with Gradey Dick, who shot the team’s best 39.5 percent three-point percentage since the Pascal Siakam trade last year. If you want defense, you’d go with Ochai Agbaji, who often defended the opponent’s best player during the Raptors’ excruciating, injury-plagued March. It’s either/or: Dick has improved dramatically as a defender over the course of the season, but still has a long way to go; Agbaji shot 21.7 percent three-pointers as a Raptor.

Bruce Brown is a third option who brings at least a little of both. He doesn’t have the size to bother the best players on the perimeter, but he’s smart and stubborn. Brown has shot 33.7 percent from beyond the arc in his career, but he’s also had a few years of good shooting percentage on low volume shots.

Ultimately, I’m rooting for Dick because of his long-term importance to the team. Brown’s playmaking skills could be useful for backups as well, although a similar theory didn’t pan out last year. Agbaji likely begins the year as the eighth or ninth man.


Does Gradey Dick have the best chance of making the Raptors’ starting lineup this season? (Bob Frid/USA Today)

What is happening in the frontcourt and will that affect the final spot on the main roster?

As mentioned, the Raptors are small. The Raptors have made two first-round picks in the last two years, and both have used wing players who are more shooting guards than small forwards: Dick and Ja’Kobe Walter. The Siakam, OG Anunoby and Utah trades brought back a guard (Quickley), three wing players (Brown, Barrett and Agbaji) and a big (Olynyk). According to nba.com, the players made 65.5 percent of shots from less than six feet away when Olynyk blocked a shot, which ranks 90th among centers. Among the regulars, only Jaxson Hayes, Omer Yurtseven and Mitchell Robinson had worse numbers.

Barnes’ defensive play mitigates this problem, but letting Olynyk play with Barnes cannot be a priority when Darko Rajaković has more important things to do. In theory, that leaves a meaningful role for Chris Boucher. To that I say: “Fake once…”

My guess is the Raptors will ask some players to step up on defense, with Agbaji and Barrett leading the way in those roles. They’re hoping more pressure from Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead will lead to fewer line drives to the basket, but that kind of pressure is a risk-reward proposition, as we learned from Nick Nurse’s last two teams in Toronto. Branden Carlson, the 25-year-old rookie on a two-way contract, blocked 2.5 shots per 40 minutes during his career in Utah, but that would make for a slow frontcourt if paired with Olynyk. Jonathan Mogbo is active and athletic, but was measured at just over 6’10” at the combine.

Bruno Fernando, who has been in the NBA for five years, will be in training camp as a non-guaranteed. The Raptors have 14 players with guaranteed NBA contracts, and he brings a little insurance to the basket. I don’t think he’ll make the rotation, but it wouldn’t be surprising to give him the 15th spot for now, as the Raptors are comfortably under the luxury tax line, and then re-evaluate around January. They could also wait to see if an interesting player is released by another team in October and use that spot elsewhere.

It would be surprising if any of the Raptors’ two-way players were added to the main roster in October. Unless someone they love becomes available for a two-way player, I would expect the Raptors to give Carlson and DJ Carton a chance in both the NBA and Raptors 905 and see how they do. (Chomche is a long-term project and will not be added this season.) It’s plausible that the Raptors will simply keep the 15th spot open if they decide not to keep Fernando.

Is there room for Ja’Kobe Walter in the rotation?

This time last year, some readers were yelling at me for not putting Dick in the rotation. I was more wrong than right. Dick played in each of the first 14 games, but only in five of those games did he play more than 15 minutes. He then played himself out of the rotation before finding his way back after midseason trades.

I’d expect a similar start for Walter, despite being on a roster with more players of similar size and ability than Dick did a year ago. Walter has to contend with Dick, Brown, and Agbaji, while Dick mostly had Gary Trent Jr. and a number of bigger forwards (who got more time than he struggled).

The four guaranteed starters of Mitchell, Brown, Dick and Olynyk will clearly be ahead of him, leaving him battling with Agbaji, Boucher, Mogbo and Shead (who are intentionally placed in that order) for the ninth/tenth spot.

I bet he gets a quick look as the Raptors quickly reevaluate his spot.

(Top photo: Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images)

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