HHigh winds swept across southeast Australia over the weekend as a series of cold fronts moved across the continent. Last week, Sydney and other parts of New South Wales were under high fire risk, and a fire threatened homes in southwest Sydney.

The harsh weather caps off a strange winter across Australia. The highest winter temperature ever recorded in the country was recorded at 41.6°C in Yampi Sound in Western Australia on Tuesday. Winter temperatures in other parts of Australia have been well above average.

We can look forward to the positive aspects: spring flowers blooming early and people putting on t-shirts and heading to the beach. But this weather also has a scary undercurrent.

The Earth’s climate has become dangerously unstable and it’s only a matter of time before we experience the nasty combination of hot and dry weather, strong winds and a spark. None of this should be a surprise. The sooner we stop expecting “normal” Australian weather, the sooner we can prepare for life in a wild climate.

The green is deceptive

The landscape around Sydney – and indeed much of south-east Australia – is very green at the moment. This is because we have had a couple of years of good rains, which have triggered an explosive growth of vegetation.

NASA satellite images show the scene in great detail. It’s really lush out there right now.

The problem with climate change, however, is that weather conditions can change in an instant. This August was a typical example. At the end of the month, large parts of Australia were hit by a record-breaking heatwave and destructive winds – conditions that can dry out a green landscape with devastating efficiency, turning it into fuel for bushfires.

The dangerous fire weather that hit Sydney this week came as a surprise to many, but in reality, these abnormal conditions are the new normal.

We have to open ourselves up to this if we want to be prepared.

A climate out of joint

The year 2023 was the hottest year on Earth since weather records began. And 2024 is expected to be even hotter.

In Australia, the last twelve months have provided all the necessary evidence that our climate is on the wrong track.

In October 2023, the Gippsland region of Victoria experienced unseasonably early bushfires, followed shortly thereafter by heavy rainfall and flooding.

And Tasmania, where I live, has been hit by drought. This February was the third driest for Hobart in 143 years. But over the weekend we were hit by torrential rain and winds.

This climate instability is leading to dire fire conditions. There won’t be fires everywhere in southeast Australia, but somewhere it will happen. It could be the hinterland or the coast. It will depend on how our unpredictable climate behaves in the coming months.

Let’s stick with the example of Tasmania. Sure, the surface soils are well saturated now. But this will lead to a lush bloom of grass and vegetation in the spring. As dry weather returns and temperatures rise in the summer, the fine fuels will dry out and become dangerously combustible.

All we need then is a windy day and a spark, and soon a nightmarish fire will be raging across the landscape.

Canada in flames

Of course, Australia is not the only country facing climatic instability and increasing fire risk.

Canada experienced a catastrophic wildfire season in 2023 – one of the worst ever recorded. Nearly 15 million hectares of land burned and 232,000 people had to be evacuated.

The smoke generated by the fires affected communities within a radius of up to 1,000 kilometers, for example in southern Canada and on the east coast of the United States.

A recent article in the journal Nature Communications explained the reasons for this, citing early snow melt, drought conditions early in the season and intense heat. In fact, the average temperature in Canada from May to October last year was 2.2 degrees higher than the average for the past 30 years.

The researchers said human-caused climate change had worsened the impacts of the fire. They continued:

The current fire season has also shown clearly what a disproportionate impact a few days of extreme weather can have on the entire burned area. Given the forecasted future conditions, the outlook is worrying.

Normality no longer exists

Due to natural climate variability, it has always been difficult to predict fire seasons in Australia.

But now we are experiencing climate instability that is becoming even more severe: basic drying, rainy seasons that bring with them an increase in fuel, and above-average temperatures.

At some point we’ll be unlucky and extremely strong winds will come along. That’s when the probability of devastating fires is at its highest.

As we saw in the “Black Summer” of 2019-20 and also last year in Canada, some fires are so intense that they completely overwhelm firefighting strategies.

Climate change increases the likelihood of an unfavourable weather combination, so what is the antidote?

Australia really needs to start building resilience in its communities. Serious and sustained adaptation is needed. As my research has shown, this requires careful integration of:

• Community education programs

• Research and development to design fire-safe homes, gardens, communities and bushland

• Incentives and sanctions to ensure that adaptation measures are implemented

As this winter has shown, Australia’s climate is entering a different phase. It’s time to abandon ‘normal’ weather. The rules of the game are changing and we must adapt.