Immediately after Iran fired its barrage of drones, rockets and ballistic missiles into Israel on Tuesday evening, something became clear.

“This will have consequences,” said Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, a prominent spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF).

Although the country has been fighting adversaries on multiple fronts for about 12 months, there have been a number of escalations in the last two weeks.

But if the rear admiral’s words are to be true, another one could be imminent.

Iran said its attack was in response to Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last week.

Here are three things Israel could do next.

We’ve been here before

In April, we found ourselves at a similar crossroads in the region, and what Israel decided then could hint at possible retaliation this time.

Iran fired hundreds of drones, missiles and missiles directly at Israel in response to the country’s airstrike on its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria.

According to Israel, 99 percent of the barrage was fired from various sources, and the United States then called on its close ally to “claim victory” and not respond.

But six days after that attack, Israel fired several rockets at air defense installations at a military site near Isfahan.

Iran’s largest nuclear research facility is located on the site.

While Iran opted for a theatrical option, Israel made its point more pointedly: it demonstrated that it had the capability to attack a sensitive target if it wanted to.

Israel’s response was on a smaller scale than Iran’s attack, but it was clearly designed to strike a balance between deterring the enemy and avoiding further escalation of the situation.

Crucially, Iran did not retaliate last time, which could mean Israel now opts for a similar option: attacks on military infrastructure that are unlikely to result in civilian casualties a way that avoids any danger of plunging the region deeper into conflict.

However, Israel’s military and political leaders, who found themselves in this position earlier this year, may believe that a stronger deterrent is needed for the Islamic Republic.

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An escalation could occur

What might greater retribution look like?

While we’re still learning the details of Iran’s barrage, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said it contained many more ballistic missiles than the ones it sent in April, and that’s significant because they’re harder to shoot down.

With this in mind, a next step for Israel could be to target an Iranian nuclear facility rather than an object near such a facility, as was the case last time. Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli prime minister, has called on the IDF to do this.

However, Iran would view this as a significant escalation.

Iran said it targeted military facilities in Israel with its missiles this week. If Israel were to step up its response while minimizing the danger to civilians, it could seek to attack its enemy’s critical infrastructure, such as power plants or oil production facilities.

Iran produces about four percent of the world’s oil, and some U.S. politicians have called on Israel to target the industry.

US politicians have backed a strike on Iranian oil production. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina said the Biden administration should help Israel prepare an “overwhelming response” and that Iranian oil refineries should be “hit hard.”

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How about restraint?

While this is a long shot, there is always the possibility that Israel might do nothing.

Although Iran has directly attacked Israel twice this year, it has made it clear that it does not want war. Analysts say that while the rocket, drone and ballistic missile fire could be interpreted as aggression, it has a deterrent effect.

There are a few things that make it unlikely that Israel will do nothing.

The first is that several political and military leaders within the state have promised retaliation.

But there has also been an obviously calculated shift in what the country is prepared to do.

While Israel has long fought Iran through its proxies Hezbollah (in Lebanon), Hamas (in Gaza), the Houthis (in Yemen) and the Syrian regime, 2024 brought a major development: Iran and Israel have attacked each other directly .

Once this limit is exceeded, reluctance seems much less likely.

After Iran’s attack in April, Israel’s allies urged not to escalate the situation. This time, however, those calls were much quieter. This is another factor that makes it highly unlikely that Israel will not respond.

In addition, Israel will also know that it can defeat Iran militarily.

Decades of Western sanctions have taken their toll on Iran. The country’s air defense systems are not hermetic. The Iranian Air Force is outdated.

For all these reasons, the question now is not whether Israel will strike back, but rather when and how hard.

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