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Is it too late to buy Chipotle Mexican Grill stock?
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Is it too late to buy Chipotle Mexican Grill stock?

Chipotle just pulled off a big surprise and Wall Street didn’t like the news. But for long-term growth investors, it could be an important sign.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG -2.78%) is not a cheap stock, with a hefty price-to-earnings ratio of about 50. And that’s after the stock has declined about 25% from its all-time high. But if you’re looking for a growth stock, now is probably the time to pay special attention to Chipotle. The big news right now is the surprise departure of the company’s CEO. It may not be as bad as Wall Street seems to think.

Chipotle has a long history of major setbacks

Given absolute P/E levels, it’s hard to argue that now is the best time to buy Chipotle. But there’s never really been a best time for this stock, which has long enjoyed a premium to other large restaurant companies. However, Chipotle’s current P/E is actually below its 10-year average P/E.

Diagram CMG

CMG data from YCharts

While this is definitely not a good choice for value investors, more aggressive growth investors might still be interested. There are several reasons for this. First, Chipotle stock has not risen in a straight line. It has experienced a series of significant declines of 20% or more. The current drop of nearly 25% is the seventh such decline in the chart above. To be fair, the largest drop was around 75%, and there is a large drop of around 50% in that percentage as well. So the current price decline could continue.

Given the huge drop in share price following the CEO’s announcement that he would leave the company and take over the leadership of the coffee giant, Starbucks (SBUX 0.53%)it looks like investors are in a “show me” mood. That makes sense considering Brian Niccol was a highly respected leader in the restaurant industry. Instead of being worried, however, investors seeking long-term growth should probably be more interested.

You didn’t exactly miss the boat at Chipotle

Still, it would be unwise to rush out and buy Chipotle right now. There are many changes, including the appointment of Scott Boatwright as interim CEO, the return of a key senior employee who had just announced his retirement, and the appointment of a new chairman. However, all of these changes involve people who have been with the company for years, so it’s unlikely that Chipotle’s business will suddenly take a nosedive.

In fact, the second quarter’s financial results were particularly strong. Revenue increased 18% year over year, with store sales up an astonishing 11%. Restaurant-level operating margin increased 140 basis points to 28.9%. Niccol leaves a company that is doing quite well financially.

Still, some issues need to be addressed. Niccol came in and made some dramatic changes to Chipotle’s business, including the introduction of drive-thru lanes and digital ordering systems. These were necessary advances to keep the company on track, but some industry observers have suggested that the company has lost sight of key fundamentals. These include value (there have been complaints about shrinking portion sizes), customer service and restaurant cleanliness.

Diagram CMG

CMG data from YCharts

Such problems, especially if they are accompanied by a return to more normal business results in the restaurant sector, could lead to an even steeper share price decline. Fixing some of the problems mentioned above could be difficult because they are cultural in nature. But there is no reason to believe they cannot be fixed. And they give the next CEO a job to do. Essentially, Niccol’s departure could be the catalyst that gets Chipotle to refocus on its core business after a period of dramatic change.

Don’t rush into Chipotle, but watch it closely

As mentioned, Chipotle is an expensive stock. In fact, only aggressive growth investors will likely want to own it. However, given the already steep price decline and investor concerns about the recent change in the executive suite, the stock could become increasingly interesting from here on out. If more bad news emerges, such as a drop in in-store sales to more normal industry levels in the low to mid-single digits, the stock could easily fall further. And that would not be at all atypical given the historical price volatility here.

Now may not be the best time to buy Chipotle, but if the price decline increases to nearly 50%, you may want to consider buying a block of shares. The most aggressive investors may be considering an entry position by now, expecting to lower the average price if the price decline continues. Indeed, there is bad news here. But so far, no news seems to be permanently damaging the Chipotle brand, even though investors are increasingly negative about the company.

Reuben Gregg Brewer does not own any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool owns and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill and Starbucks. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short September 2024 $52 puts on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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