Indian Stock Market: Domestic benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty 50 are expected to open higher on Monday amid optimistic sentiment in global markets.

Asian markets saw mixed trading, while U.S. stock futures rose in overnight trade after the S&P 500 posted its best week of 2024.

This week, representatives of central banks from around the world will speak at the symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The keynote speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday could raise expectations of an interest rate cut in the US.

Meanwhile, financial markets are assuming that there is a 74.5 percent chance that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its September meeting. The chance of a significant rate cut of 50 basis points, however, is falling to 25.5 percent, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

On Friday, leading Indian stock markets gained nearly 2 percent each, with the Nifty 50 reclaiming the 24,500-point mark and the Sensex crossing the 80,500-point mark.

The Sensex rose 1,330.96 points or 1.68% to close at 80,436.84, while the Nifty 50 was 397.40 points or 1.65% higher at 24,541.15.

“We expect earnings momentum to continue with a steady growth of ~15% over the next two years (FY24-26). The weakening US PPI data has raised hopes of rate cuts in the US. Hence, all eyes will be on the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes this week. Overall, we expect the market to consolidate in a broader range and be influenced by global factors,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services.

Investors will be watching for upcoming domestic and global macroeconomic data, the US Federal Council minutes, Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, foreign capital inflows, crude oil prices and other key global geopolitical developments that can impact the Indian stock market.

Here are the key global market signals for Sensex today:

Asian markets

Asian markets were mixed on Monday after a broad rally last week, as investors await key economic data from the region. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.2 percent, after gaining 2.8 percent last week.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 recovered its early losses to trade flat, while the Topix slipped 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.17% and the Kosdaq lost 0.46%. Hang Seng Index futures in Hong Kong pointed to a higher opening.

Give Nifty as a gift today

Gift Nifty was trading at around 24,666, up nearly 68 points from the previous close of Nifty futures, indicating a positive start for Indian stock market indices.

Wall-Street

The U.S. stock market closed higher on Friday, extending its biggest weekly percentage gain of the year, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting their seventh consecutive gain.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 96.7 points, or 0.24%, to 40,659.76, while the S&P 500 rose 11.03 points, or 0.20%, to 5,554.25. The Nasdaq Composite closed 37.22 points, or 0.21%, higher at 17,631.72.

Consumer sentiment in the USA

U.S. consumer sentiment rose in August, driven by developments in the race for the White House. The University of Michigan’s preliminary overall consumer sentiment index was 67.8 for the month, compared with a final reading of 66.4 in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 66.9.

Construction starts

U.S. single-family housing starts, which account for the majority of housing construction, fell 14.1% in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 851,000 units, the lowest since March 2023. Compared to the same period last year, single-family housing starts fell 14.8% in July.

Core machine orders from Japan

Japan’s core orders in the mechanical engineering sector rose more than expected in June compared to the previous month.

Core orders rose 2.1 percent in June compared to the previous month. Economists had expected an increase of 1.1 percent in a Reuters poll. On an annual basis, core orders fell 1.7 percent, while growth of 1.8 percent had been forecast.

Oil prices

Crude oil prices fell on Monday as fears of weaker demand in China weighed on market sentiment.

Brent crude futures fell 0.2% to $79.55 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.2% to $76.52 a barrel.

Gold prices

Gold prices rose to an all-time high, with the spot price of gold exceeding $2,500 an ounce for the first time, while the dollar weakened on growing expectations of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in September and rising tensions in the Middle East.

(With contributions from Reuters)

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