AccuWeather: “We expect two to four more direct impacts to affect the United States this season.”
Tropical development expected in the coming days
Meteorologists are keeping an eye on several potential tropical storm systems over the Atlantic.
AccuWeather has issued an updated forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the forecast is better than the “explosive” season predicted in March.
But that doesn’t mean Florida or the U.S. won’t see storms, according to AccuWeather. The latest forecast is still above the historical average for the number of tropical cyclones in the season.
“We expect two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season,” said Jon Porter, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather. And while the strongest phase of hurricane season usually runs from mid-August to mid-October, tropical threats could last into November this year, forecasters warned.
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After an unusually quiet August, forecasters have reduced the number of named storms forecast for the season. Labor Day weekend was the first in 27 years without a named storm in the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather reported.
Tropical activity has already increased in September; the National Hurricane Center tracked three tropical waves in the Caribbean and Atlantic.
What is AccuWeather’s latest forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season?
AccuWeather predicts the following for the season:
- 16-20 named storms
- 6-10 hurricanes
- 3-6 major hurricanes
- 4-6 direct impacts on the United States
A major hurricane is a Category 3 or higher storm with maximum sustained wind speeds of at least 111 mph (178 km/h).
New AccuWeather forecast still above historical average
An average hurricane season includes 14 named storms in the Atlantic basin.
This is still below the new, reduced forecast of 16 to 20 named storms released by AccuWeather.
How does the forecast for hurricane season in September compare to the forecast for March?
In March, AccuWeather predicted that the season could bring:
- 20–25 named storms (now reduced to 16–20)
- 8–12 hurricanes (now reduced to 6–10)
- 4–7 major hurricanes (now reduced to 3–6)
- 4-6 direct impact on the USA (remains the same)
AccuWeather predicted an “explosive” hurricane season that has the potential to break the previous record of 30 named storms in a season.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have a significantly higher number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes and direct impacts to the United States than historical averages,” AccuWeather senior hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva said in March.
“All signs point to a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”
Florida, Texas and Carolinas at risk this hurricane season
“We have warned that Texas, the Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas have a higher than average risk of direct impacts this season,” AccuWeather said.
“Three of these four areas have already experienced this this season. Hurricane Beryl made landfall off the Texas coast in July. Hurricane Debby hit the Big Bend region of Florida in August, followed by a second landfall in South Carolina as a tropical storm,” Porter said.
Why did AccuWeather lower its hurricane season forecast?
Dry air and Saharan dust. Delay in the arrival of La Niña. Wind shear.
All three conditions make it difficult for tropical cyclones to form or intensify.
“Throughout August, the Atlantic basin experienced the usual and large amount of dry air and Saharan dust. The evolution toward a La Niña pattern was slower than expected, resulting in stronger wind shear,” DaSilva said.
“We are also observing a large accumulation of cold water off the west coast of Africa, which is disrupting the tropical waves.
“The extremely warm waters in much of the Atlantic basin are ideal for tropical storm development and rapid intensification. However, dry air, dust, wind shear and cold water off the coast of Africa have prevented most tropical waves from developing into tropical storms or hurricanes.”
“Don’t let your guard down”: 2-4 direct impacts on the USA expected
“We don’t want anyone to become careless, even though we are now predicting fewer storms overall,” Porter said.
“We expect two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season. All it takes is one powerful hurricane or slow-moving tropical storm to threaten lives and cause devastation. With such extremely warm waters across much of the Atlantic basin and more favorable conditions for tropical development expected in the coming weeks, it is important that everyone is prepared for the threat of more storms this year.
“The water is incredibly warm near many coastal cities in the United States. This warm water can act like jet fuel, helping incoming storms explode in intensity. Rapid intensification near the coast is a big concern this fall.”
The 2024 hurricane season could bring tropical threats into November or even December
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, and the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.
Tropical hazards could continue into November and possibly even December this year, partly due to extremely high water temperatures, Porter said.
NOAA predicts 17-24 named storms for 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
In its August 8 seasonal update, NOAA made minor changes to the original May forecast. Here is the latest forecast:
- Named storms: 17-24
- Hurricanes: 8-13
- Major hurricanes: 4-7
- Above normal season: 90%
- Almost normal season: 10%
