Hurricane Helene? Meteorologists warn that Florida could be at risk of severe hurricane this week
Top line
A storm system in the Caribbean Sea is expected to strengthen into Tropical Storm Helene by Tuesday and could become a “major hurricane” when it reaches Florida’s Gulf Coast on Thursday, the National Hurricane Center warns.
A graphic shows the potential hurricane-force winds of a storm approaching Florida’s Gulf Coast. … (+)
Key data
A system designated “Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine” centered about 560 kilometers south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba has triggered tropical storm and hurricane warnings in western Cuba and on the Mexican Yucatán Peninsula; the west coast of Florida and the Panhandle could also be affected.
Meteorologists predict the system will turn northwest the next day, with its center moving through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico, where it is expected to “intensify significantly.”
By the time it reaches the U.S. on Thursday, the system could develop into a major hurricane. In the same areas of Florida that were hit hard by Hurricane Idalia in August 2023, there is an “increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and destructive hurricane-force winds.”
A broad stretch of Florida’s coastline – from Tampa Bay to west of Panama City – lies in the cone of uncertainty.
Heavy rains and flooding could occur in the western Caribbean, and mudslides are possible in western Cuba.
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Large number
177 km/h. That is how strong the storm’s winds are forecast to be as of 11:00 a.m. Thursday, which would classify the storm as a Category 2 hurricane. However, meteorologists point out that the forecast is “close to or just below” the consensus forecast of the computer models and that a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) is possible in Florida.
Key quote
“It is too early to determine the exact location and extent of impacts,” the National Hurricane Center noted of the Florida coast in the cone of uncertainty. “Residents in these areas should monitor the latest weather forecasts and make sure they have their hurricane plan ready.”
Important background
Helene would be the eighth named tropical storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, arriving weeks after Sept. 11, when Francine made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 2. The only tropical storm that formed between the two, named Gordon, lost strength in the Atlantic on Friday. Meteorologists predicted this year’s strongest storm season (from June 1 to Nov. 30) ever forecast by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — as many as 25 named storms and 13 hurricanes — but the season so far has not been as active as predicted.
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