U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, Damian Williams
Photo: Alex Kent/Getty Images

New York City Mayor Eric Adams has been in the spotlight for months, and now he himself is in the firing line. We’ve never seen anything like this: just a few blocks away, the government is bringing charges against the former police captain and current mayor of the world’s most important city. It’s now going to trial, and the stakes are unimaginably high for the city itself and the man at the center of it.

Let’s examine what we know and what we don’t.

The charges: The 57-page indictment accuses Adams of federal crimes, including conspiracy, wire fraud, solicitation of foreign campaign contributions, and bribery. Essentially, prosecutors allege that since 2015, Adams solicited and received two types of improper benefits from powerful Turkish government officials and nationals: (1) free or heavily discounted luxury travel, which Adams at times failed to truthfully disclose, and (2) illegal foreign campaign contributions funneled to the Adams campaign through false “straw man donors.” In return, Adams allegedly used his official power as Brooklyn borough president and later mayor to do important favors for his Turkish benefactors. In 2021, as construction of a skyscraper called the “Turkish House” was completed, Turkish officials wanted to have the building inspected and approved for opening by the end of September 2021, in time for a visit by the Turkish president. Adams put pressure on New York City Fire Department officials to speed up (and sometimes even shorten) the safety inspection process to the satisfaction of his Turkish patrons.

Even before the U.S. Attorney held a press conference to announce the charges, Adams made two public statements in which he categorically denied any wrongdoing. He offered no specific defense or rebuttals—but of course he is presumed innocent and has nothing to prove to anyone if (and when) this case goes to trial.

I know what you’re wondering: How strong is the prosecution’s case? The answer I’m here to give you is… we don’t know yet (sorry). The prosecution certainly has merit. Reading between the lines, prosecutors have apparently uncovered one or more campaign insiders who can detail the inner workings of the alleged plot. It seems clear that Adams attempted to cover up receiving over $100,000 in free or discounted luxury trips. And the prosecution cites incriminating text messages in which Adams appears to instruct his campaign staff to find a way to accept donations from Turkish citizens and pressure the FDNY to expedite its inspection of the Turkish House.

But bribery and corruption cases are notoriously difficult for prosecutors. Defendants often claim — as Adams surely will here — that if anything illegal was going on, he was in the dark about it and was just doing his job by making sure constituents’ needs were met. Sometimes you can read an indictment and say, “Game over.” This is not one of those cases. That’s not to say the indictment is weak or problematic, but it’s not a sure-fire success.

The prosecutors: This is a federal case brought by the Southern District of New York District Attorney’s Office, where I used to work. (Contrary to what you may have seen on social media, this case has nothing to do with Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg or New York State Attorney General Letitia James.) U.S. Attorney Damian Williams is only 44 years old — making him the youngest U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York in recent memory, perhaps even the youngest U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York. He is also the first black U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York — which may become relevant to the atmosphere, given that his prosecutor is prosecuting New York City’s second black mayor.

Williams does not fit the traditional mold of a U.S. Attorney for the SDNY. He is not a fire-breathing self-promoter (Rudy Giuliani, come forward), and he is not a natural media magnet (like James Comey or Preet Bharara). He is low-key, independent, and conscientious. Williams began his tenure in the background—not necessarily as a critic—but has surged into the spotlight over the past year or so, putting Sam Bankman-Fried, Senator Robert Menendez, Sean “Diddy” Combs, and now the incumbent mayor on the front pages.

Williams’ name will appear in the court records and he will be the public face of the prosecution, but he will not argue the case in court. That task will fall to a team of assistant U.S. attorneys, likely from the Public Corruption Unit. That group has a recent history of bringing down powerful New York political leaders, including Democratic House Speaker Sheldon Silver and Republican Senate Leader Dean Skelos. The SDNY has a long, proud history and considers itself the best of the best (I plead guilty to completely believing our own hype), but it too is not infallible; both Silver and Skelos had to be retried (and were reconvicted) after the U.S. Supreme Court issued a decision in a separate case in 2016 that overturned their original convictions.

The defense team: It is common practice in such articles to quote former colleagues of the featured attorney vouching for his integrity and raving about his excellent courtroom skills. Now, get ready for some standard statements from me about Adams’ defense attorneys, Boyd Johnson and Brendan McGuire. Let’s put it this way: As a prosecutor, no one on the defense side intimidated me — but these two are pretty darn impressive, and I would be nervous if I had to face them in the courtroom. Johnson was an assistant U.S. attorney, the second-highest ranking person in the office, and McGuire was head of the (looks at his notes) … anti-public corruption unit. The SDNY is notoriously elitist (just ask us), but these two were among the absolute best to come through it during my eight-plus years there. They both know how to build a case as a prosecutor — and accordingly, how to tear one apart from the defense.

Adams’ defense team includes Alex Spiro, a leading criminal defense attorney for the rich and powerful. Spiro recently secured the dismissal of Alec Baldwin’s criminal case, and his client list (both civil and criminal) ranges from Jay-Z to Robert Kraft, owner of the New England Patriots. This will be no picnic for prosecutors.

What happens next: Adams is likely to appear in federal court in the next few business days. To show how small the world is down there, when I used to walk from the World Trade Center site to the SDNY, I passed right by the mayor’s office, which is less than a quarter mile from the courthouse. It will be a surreal scene when Adams – still the city’s acting mayor – appears in court for the first time and sits at the defendant’s table.

At his arraignment, Adams will be informed of the charges against him and will almost certainly plead not guilty. Unlike Sean Combs, who was recently jailed without bail, Adams will almost certainly be released on bail or possibly without any conditions. From there, the case will move through the unglamorous but vitally important pre-trial stages: evidentiary hearings (the process in which prosecutors must present their evidence to the defense) and motions (which will surely include challenges by Adams to various searches of his property and to the charges themselves).

The vast majority of federal trials — more than 95 percent in recent years — end in a guilty plea, so statistically that’s always the most likely outcome. Still, I’d put the odds of a guilty plea here far lower, perhaps less than 50-50. Adams is known for his self-assurance, shall we say, and he has vehemently defended himself, defiantly claiming that in this case, “I always knew that if I stood up for New Yorkers, I would be targeted — and I was targeted.” It’s unclear who exactly Adams believes is targeting him or why. But he has vowed to “fight it with every ounce of my strength and spirit.” That doesn’t sound like he’s gunning for a guilty plea, though things can certainly change quickly.

If this case does go to trial, it is unlikely to happen anytime soon. Normally, a case of this severity and complexity would take at least a year to go to trial, probably longer. However, if Adams remains in office as mayor, the case will become more urgent and could reach a resolution more quickly.

The feds, and the SDNY in particular, are used to steamrolling their defendants. Usually the charges are too strong, the evidence too overwhelming, and the resources at the government’s disposal too great. But this case will be a pitched battle, and it’s a mistake to predict a particular outcome. Adams could win the case and remain mayor, or he could end up in a jail cell. All we know is that he’s not going down without a fight.