The Atlantic hurricane season typically undergoes some important changes in October, affecting not only how many storms form but also where they are more likely to strike.

A decrease in the number of storms: In the satellite era since 1966, the number of storms and hurricanes that form in October is less than half that of September, the peak month of the season.

That still means two to three storms and one to two hurricanes are the norm in October.

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Less favorable area: One reason for this is that as October progresses, there are typically fewer properties in the Atlantic basin suitable for development. In particular, the eastern Atlantic, from Africa to the Lesser Antilles, and the northwestern Gulf of Mexico are becoming less supportive.

One reason for this is that these areas experience an increase in wind shear from September to October, which typically tears systems apart and attempts to develop into tropical storms.

The parade of tropical waves—those disturbances that march off Africa and can be the seeds of tropical storms and hurricanes—also subsides in October.

According to the National Hurricane Center’s climatology, very few storms had formed east of the Lesser Antilles through the end of October. This also means that the risk of hurricanes in October is lower in Texas compared to Florida.

The main reason for this can be seen in the map above. A common scenario in October is for storms to form in the far western Caribbean and then quickly sweep northeast into Florida.

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Current storms in October: Despite a typical decline from the September peak, notoriously destructive October hurricanes have still occurred in recent years. Including:

So, October can still be a dangerous month. Make sure your hurricane plan is still operational.

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Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at Weather.com and has been reporting on domestic and international weather conditions since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather conditions are his favorite topics. Contact him at X (formerly Twitter), Topics, Facebook And Bluesky.