Before his death, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah had drawn up a plan for how the group would fight Israel. He had struck a delicate balance: supporting Hamas in its fight against Israel while avoiding a full-blown war that could engulf Lebanon. “Some in Lebanon say we are taking a risk. But this risk is part of a sensible, correct calculation,” he claimed in a confident voice in a video from a secret location.

But as the days turned into weeks after Hamas’ surprise attack on Israel last October, Nasrallah’s calculations began to unravel. Driven by domestic political pressure and a strong desire to retake its northern border, Israel unleashed a spate of targeted attacks on Hezbollah. Each airstrike not only destroyed infrastructure, but also destroyed the myth of invulnerability that Hezbollah had cultivated.

Rumors circulated that Israeli intelligence had penetrated deep into Hezbollah’s ranks and made the group vulnerable. As Nasrallah watched the chaos, he felt the weight of every decision he made. To create a leadership vacuum within Hezbollah, Israel continued to target senior members of the terror group.

Failed calculations

The last two weeks have shown how Nasrallah’s calculations failed as Israel carried out a series of precision strikes in Lebanon. The campaign has already incapacitated 1,500 Hezbollah fighters with exploding pagers and walkie-talkies and resulted in the deaths of several top leaders.

Nasrallah had avoided public appearances since an earlier war in 2006. According to a source familiar with Nasrallah’s security arrangements, he had been on alert for a long time, his freedom of movement was restricted and the circle of people he saw was very small. The assassination attempt suggested that his group had been infiltrated by informants working for Israel, Reuters reports.

Hezbollah’s path lies ahead

Including Nasrallah, the Israeli military says it has killed eight of Hezbollah’s nine top military commanders this year, most of them in the past week. These commanders led units ranging from the Rocket Division to the elite Radwan unit.

But the group, whose name means “Party of God,” is expected to continue fighting: According to U.S. and Israeli estimates, it had about 40,000 fighters before the current escalation, as well as large weapons stockpiles and an extensive network of tunnels near the Israeli border.