The Houston Astros (87-73) and Cleveland Guardians (92-68) continue their season-ending three-game series with a Saturday night game at North Shore. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s 24/7 MLB odds Astros vs Guardians Opportunities and meet our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Astros lead 3-1

The Astros have posted a 13-11 record this month, struggling offensively on the road (.663 OPS) while excelling at home (.824 OPS).

Cleveland finished strong after a sloppy start to the second half. The Guardians played July 17-21 and August 19. 27. Even after Friday’s setback, the AL Central champs and potential No. 1 seeds in the AL playoffs are 17-10 since then.

Houston won its division on Tuesday and is No. 3 in the American League. Cleveland is one game behind the New York Yankees for the AL’s No. 1 seed, but the Yankees have the tiebreaker over the Guardians.

Astros at Guardians projected starters

RHP Justin Verlander vs RHP Ben Lively

Verlander (4-6, 5.55 ERA) is making his 17th start. He has a WHIP of 1.40, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 84 1/3 IP.

• Last appearance: No decision, 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K in a 9-7 home win over the Los Angeles Angels on September 20th
• Career vs. Cleveland (regular season): 23-24, 4.41 ERA (352 2/3 IP, 173 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 56 starts

Lively (13-9, 3.80 ERA) is scheduled to make his 29th start. He posted a 1.22 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 147 IP.

• Last appearance: Win, 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in a 5-1 win at the St. Louis Cardinals on September 20th
• Never played against Astros

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Astros to Guardians odds

Powered by BetMGM Sportsbook; Visit the USA TODAY sports scores and sports betting hub for a complete list of MLB odds. Lines were last updated at 11:05 a.m. ET.

• Money line: Astros +100 (Bet $100 to Win $100) | Guardians -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
• Run Line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Astros -1.5 (+165) | Guardian +1.5 (-200)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Astros at Guardians tips and predictions

forecast

Astros 6, Guards 4

Money line

Houston (+100) is undervalued to win outright, but its run line presents a more profitable opportunity.

HAPPEN. Instead, bet on the run line and/or the total.

Running Line/Against the Spread

The Astros have gone 6-1 in their last 7 series meetings, and 4 of Houston’s wins have come by multiple margins.

Verlander may be a question mark, but Lively at least seems overrated. He has benefited from a .222 batting average on balls in play with runners in scoring position, and his season ERA is tempered by that good fortune.

Things will get interesting if the Yankees beat the Pittsburgh Pirates in an earlier game. New York’s magic number to clinch the top spot in the AL is 1. A Yankee win could put the Guardians in mediocre relief and rest mode.

Houston’s bullpen has been sharp over the last few months.

The return here (price listed on FanDuel Sportsbook) makes Houston worth the risk. BACK THE ASTROS -1.5 (+172).

Over/Under

The under 8s played on Friday and earned a 5-2 win against Houston. However, pitch changes the equation here.

Consider playing in subunits over 8 (-105).

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