Debate rules between Harris and Trump defined and agreed
The ground rules of the Harris-Trump debate have been established.
WASHINGTON – Allan Lichtman, the historian who has correctly predicted the outcome of nine of the last 10 presidential elections, has offered his guess as to who will reclaim the White House this year.
Spoiler alert: It’s Vice President Kamala Harris.
In a video first reported by the New York Times, Lichtman said he based his prediction on thirteen key questions, or “big-picture true-false questions that provide insight into the party’s strength and ability to hold the White House.”
Key factors include whether:
- The White House party won seats in the House of Representatives in the midterm elections
- The incumbent president is running for re-election
- The party in the White House avoids primaries
- There is a third-party challenger
- The short-term economic situation is strong
- Long-term economic growth was as good as in the last two terms
- The White House party has made major changes in national politics
- During his term in office there was persistent social unrest
- The White House is free of scandals, the incumbent party is charismatic
- The challenger is uncharismatic
- The incumbent is charismatic
- The party in the White House has made major shortcomings in foreign policy
- The White House party has foreign policy successes.
Eight of the keys speak for Harris, while three speak for Trump.
“Foreign policy is delicate, and these keys could flip,” he said in the video. “The Biden administration is deeply involved in the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian catastrophe with no end in sight. But even if both foreign policy keys flipped, that would mean there would only be five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to retake the White House.”
This means Harris will win the White House, he said. “At least that’s my prediction for this race, but the outcome depends on you, so go vote.”
Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of nearly every election over the past half century, with the exception of the 2000 race in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
Contributors: Karissa Waddick
