AccuWeather meteorologists continue to advise a high risk of tropical storms next week from the northwestern Caribbean to the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Any developing system, regardless of intensity, will likely threaten the United States along the Gulf Coast.

“There is a chance that a tropical storm that forms in this area could strengthen into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico,” said Dan DePodwin, senior director of AccuWeather Forecasting Operations. “Historically, a storm moving north from the Caribbean at this time of year not only strengthens, but often strengthens quickly. In the past, major hurricanes have developed in similar situations.”

Bernie Rayno, chief meteorologist at AccuWeather, explained that this time of year, the jet stream generally guides tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico.

“Typically, the jet stream tends to pull systems north and east entering the Gulf, with a higher chance of a direct impact from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida than the coast of Texas,” Rayno said.

Because of this, at least indirect impacts are likely to occur throughout the Gulf Coast during the middle and end of next week, with impacts escalating in some areas depending on the path of the tropical phenomenon. Conditions ranging from rising surf and sea levels to storm surges, damaging winds, and flooding are possible.

Factors expected to lead to tropical development from the western Caribbean to parts of the southern Gulf of Mexico include the formation of the Central America Gyre, a large, slowly rotating low-pressure system within which showers and thunderstorms can easily form and intensify. This gyre is much more common in the spring and later in the fall.

Another factor will be a decline in the jet stream, which will not only contribute to the strengthening of the vortex but will also influence the course of a tropical structure after it has formed.

“If the jet stream is weak, a tropical formation can still migrate into the western Gulf of Mexico and end up near Texas,” Rayno said. “However, most likely the jet stream influence is large enough to eventually pull a system north and east.”

Another factor is the extremely warm water in the proposed development zone. Surface water temperatures throughout the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are sufficiently warm.

“The warm water extends hundreds of feet below the surface in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf, so when the wind starts to stir the water, there is only minimal cooling of the surface water,” said Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s senior hurricane expert.

This deep, warm water can also greatly increase the likelihood of rapid intensification.

Wind shears, or stiff breezes blowing from one direction or changing direction, are another factor that can determine the success or failure of the tropics.

Strong wind shear can prevent the development of a tropical storm or cause a tropical storm or hurricane to weaken. With weak wind shear, the circulation around a tropical storm or hurricane is not altered and the phenomenon may strengthen or maintain its intensity. In some cases, a tropical storm or hurricane moving along with the wind shear, which can happen after some time in the Gulf, can contribute to the strengthening.

“If all the factors come together, this storm, which is expected to develop into a hurricane, can have a major impact and be one of the things that will remind us of this time of year,” DePodwin warned.

All stakeholders along the U.S. Gulf Coast, southeastern Mexico, Cuba, and parts of Central America should monitor the situation closely over the next week. A strong storm could impact local, state, and federal operations, as well as the vacation, fishing, cruise, and petroleum industries.

Impacts can extend beyond the U.S. Gulf Coast. Steering breezes can propel a system hundreds, even thousands of miles beyond its initial landfall as a tropical rainstorm.

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“Given the jet stream configuration expected for late next week and into the following weekend, the impacts of wind and rain could extend far north along the east coast,” warned DePodwind.

In addition to the likelihood of Tropical Rainstorm Gordon strengthening into a tropical storm next week, Gordon could also pass close enough to the Azores in the North Atlantic to impact the islands.

There is currently a risk of tropical development in two other areas.

One of these is located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda and could develop this weekend. Another is in the middle of the Atlantic, about halfway between Africa and the Leeward Islands. This zone could develop over the next week.

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