Topline

According to a series of polls this month, the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is all but dead less than five weeks before the election. The last four show Harris leading by a margin of two to five points.

Important facts

Big number

2.2. That’s how many points Harris is ahead of Trump in the latest RealClearPolitics poll average. The FiveThirtyEight average shows Harris with a lead of 2.8 points.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

According to a Cook Political Report poll released Wednesday, Harris leads Trump by one point in the seven battleground states that are expected to decide the election: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. Harris is ahead of Trump in five states, Trump is two points ahead in Georgia and they are tied in North Carolina.

Surprising fact

An NBC News poll released Sept. 29 found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, that lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll, conducted Sept. 16-23 of 1,000 registered Latino voters, found that 54% supported Harris, compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said , they weren’t sure who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly lower than previous peaks for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in the 2020 poll and a 50-point lead in the 2016 poll . The survey had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Polls leading up to the debate showed that Harris’ polling increase appeared to be stabilizing, including an NPR/PBS/Marist poll of registered voters from September 3-5 that showed Harris leading 49% to 48%. ahead of Trump, compared to a three-point lead in August. In a Sept. 3-4 Emerson College poll of likely voters, Harris rose two points, 47% to 49%, a slight decline from her four-point lead in Emerson’s August poll. Most post-debate polls show that a majority of respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the race between the two. A New York Times/Siena poll of likely voters released on September 19 found that the majority of voters across all demographic groups viewed Harris’ performance in the September 10 debate positively. Overall, 67% said she did well, compared to 40% who said the same for Trump (Trump was ahead of Harris by 48-47% in Times/Siena polls from early September and late July). The poll also found Harris and Trump tied at 47%. Two other polls from September 19 show Harris with a slight lead: She is up four points (49%-45%) in a YouGov/Economist poll of registered voters and up two points in the Fox News poll (50%-48%). likely voter poll, a small shift after Harris trailed by one point in a Fox poll in early August and led by just two points in a YouGov poll in early September. In an ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted a few days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, Harris was up 52% ​​to 46% among likely voters and 51% to 47% among registered voters , essentially unchanged from her six-point lead among likely voters in ABC/Ipsos polls in late August and early August – even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate last week.

tangent

Harris increased Trump’s lead in Iowa over Biden from 18 points in June in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll conducted Sept. 8-11 by longtime pollster Ann Selzer, who is known for her accuracy reduced by four points.

Important background

Biden dropped out of the race on July 21 after weeks of defying calls from his own party to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately endorsed Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly coalesced around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting to formally nominate her in a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his pick for vice president. ABC News moderated the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Pundits, including former Fox News host Chris Wallace and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss, widely considered Harris to be the winner of the debate because she repeatedly taunted Trump, causing him to go off topic. Harris’ surge in the polls coincides with a surge in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has nearly doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46% in June to 85% now, while Republican enthusiasm is at 71%. stagnates. according to a Monmouth University survey released Aug. 14.

Further reading

New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Harris won the debate – but she largely didn’t change voters’ minds (Forbes)

Trump’s lead over Biden and Harris widened after RNC poll finds HarrisX/Forbes (Forbes)

Here’s how Kamala Harris performs against Trump in polls – while Biden drops out and supports Harris (Forbes)

Harris’ lead over Trump remains unchanged after DNC, first poll results (Forbes)