With just 10 days left until the end of the regular season, four teams – the Brewers, Dodgers, Guardians and Yankees – have secured playoff spots, and while only one divisional race has been decided, only two others are even remotely in sight. There’s plenty of drama left regarding the Wild Card races, which essentially boil down to two scenarios where it’s four to three; Seattle might have been a stronger fifth-place finisher in the AL if certain Mariners reaching third base hadn’t insisted on making very odd walkabouts. In addition, it’s also worth following the jockeying for position to grab the first-round byes that go to the top two teams in each league.
In the past, I would have filled this space by reintroducing readers to the concept of team entropy, but through the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, Major League Baseball and the players’ union have traded the potential tension and scheduling chaos created by tiebreakers and sudden-death games on the field for a larger offering of playoff games. The 12-team, two-bye format was designed to reward the top two teams by avoiding the possibility of elimination in best-of-three series. So far, however, that hasn’t worked out that way, as the results of a best-of-five series are only slightly more predictable than those of a best-of-three series.
In fact, the National League teams that received a bye under the new system have since lost all four Division Series, two each to the Dodgers and Braves. The 111-win Dodgers were ousted by an 89-win Padres team in 2022, and then last year’s 100-win team was ousted by the 84-win Diamondbacks. In 2022, the 101-win Braves fell to an 87-win Phillies team, and last year, Atlanta was again eliminated after 104 wins in the regular season by a Philadelphia club that had been 14 games behind the Braves in the standings. The American League’s bye teams have been more successful, going 3-1, with the 90-win Rangers beating the 101-win Orioles last year for the lone upset. The Astros have performed well in both years: Their 106-win club swept the 90-win Mariners in 2022, and their 90-win team beat the 87-win Twins last year.
The 3-5 series record of the teams without a game is not a large enough sample to draw conclusions from, but it has sparked annual discussions about whether the rust caused by not Playing a wild card series balances out the advantages – the extra rest that gives ailing players a chance to heal and managers a chance to tweak their rotations. Intuitively, that explanation may make sense, but it’s not supported by the data. As research by Dan Szymborski showed last year, in postseason matchups since 1981 where there was a notable discrepancy in rest, when a team had four or more days of rest and faced an opponent that had two or fewer days of rest, the teams with more rest took a 24-11 lead in their next game. That’s an advantage.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the races for the two bye games in each league.
Bundesliga
The Brewers clinched their second consecutive NL Central title on Wednesday, an impressive feat considering they traded away their star player Corbin Burnes last winter, let perennial Manager of the Year candidate Craig Counsell leave for the rival Cubs and lost the resurgent Christian Yelich in August to season-ending back surgery. At 88-65 with nine games remaining, however, they are at a clear disadvantage when it comes to getting a bye, as they are three games behind the Phillies and Dodgers (both 91-62). Of that trio, they have the toughest remaining schedule, with a weighted opponent winning percentage of .513 according to our playoff odds; they host the Diamondbacks (85-68), who they lost to on Thursday night, for three more games in Milwaukee, then play three at Pittsburgh (71-81) before finishing the season at home against the Mets (85-68), who entered Friday tied with the Diamondbacks for the second NL Wild Card spot. (The Mets hold the tiebreaker there.) Taking into account their season series losses to Philadelphia (2-4) and Los Angeles (3-4), we give the Brewers just a 3.6% chance of a bye according to our odds at the time of this writing.
The Phillies are the team with the reins here. Having won their season series against the Brewers (4-2), Dodgers (5-1) and Padres (5-1) – the latter of which is still in the running for this one, as I explain below – they would win a tiebreaker against each of those teams if the scores were the same. They play three more games against the Mets at Citi Field, then head home to face the Cubs (78-75) and finish the season by visiting the Nationals (68-85). Our playoff odds give Philadelphia a 97.6 percent chance of a bye, the highest of any team in either league.
The Dodgers secured their 12th straight playoff berth on Thursday thanks to Shohei Ohtani’s 50/50 fireworks in Miami. They’re in good but not great shape in that regard, and not just because their rotation has been so decimated that both Tyler Glasnow and Gavin Stone, their only pitchers to throw more than 90 innings this season, are out for the postseason with arm injuries. While they have by far the easiest schedule of any team for the rest of the season (schedule strength .452), they face the Padres (87-66) in Los Angeles Sept. 24-26 between their two three-game series with the Rockies (this weekend at home, the last at Coors Field). San Diego has already won the season series between the two teams thanks to its 7-3 head-to-head record, so if the two teams finish with the same record, the Dodgers would be a wild card team. If they win the division and somehow finish with the same score as the Brewers, the Dodgers have the tiebreaker after beating Milwaukee 4-3. So our playoff odds still give them a 92.7 percent chance of a bye and a 93.7 percent chance of winning the division, but the door is still open.
The Padres, who lead the NL Wild Card race, could suffer a setback given the stark contrast between the team they end their regular season against at home this weekend, the rundown White Sox (36-117), and their road games in Los Angeles and Arizona. Not only do they have a tiebreaker against the Dodgers, but they also have one against the Brewers, who they are 5-2 against this season. Those two aces up their sleeves help improve their odds of winning the division to 6.3% and getting a bye to 5.8% — not huge, but they have the best chance to crash this party.
American League
As in the NL, the race for the two AL byes comes down to four teams, two of which are currently considered extreme favorites. One of those two spots is almost certain to go to the club that wins the AL East. With six wins in their last eight games, the Yankees (89-64) have extended their lead in their division over the Orioles (85-68) from half a game to four. That increases their chances of winning the AL East to 95.9%, while their chances of a bye have remained essentially the same (95.8%). With a .495 schedule for the rest of the season, it will be a no-brainer for them. In addition to three games in Oakland, they have three very important home games against the Orioles (Sept. 24-26) before closing out the season with three games at home against the Pirates.
The Orioles haven’t won a month since June, are 32-37 since early July, 27-30 since the All-Star break and 7-9 this month. Not only do they have to make up their four-game deficit in the AL East race, but they face the toughest opponent of any remaining AL contender (.532 strength): They host the surging Tigers, who are tied with the Twins for the third AL wild-card spot at 80-73, for three games and then go on the road to face the Yankees and Twins. Note that the O’s currently lead the Yankees in their head-to-head series, 6-4; at the very least, winning the season series and thus the tiebreaker is crucial. Baltimore’s chances of reaching the bye have dropped to 4.0%. That’s not great.
The Guardians (89-65) just won three of four games against the reeling Twins, reducing their magic number to win the AL Central to three. They finish their season with three games against the Cardinals (77-76) in St. Louis, followed by five home games — two against the Reds (74-80) and three against the Astros (83-70). If the Guardians finish with the same score as the Yankees, they would be second to them, having lost the season series 4-2. Cleveland also trails the Astros in the season series 2-1, in case it goes to a tiebreaker.
It’s hard to believe a tiebreaker would be necessary, as Houston needs to make up a six-game lead with nine games remaining. The Astros host three more games this weekend against a terrible Angels team (62-91), which they beat on Thursday night, and then three games against the Mariners (78-75) before traveling to Cleveland on the final weekend. As for the tiebreaker, Houston won the season series against the Orioles (5-2), but lost the game against the Yankees (1-6).
I wish I could tell you that this will be as exciting as the last few weeks, but this isn’t Team Entropy. Still, there’s something at stake for each of the teams mentioned above, and as mentioned, there’s still some meat left on the Wild Card bones. We’ll catch up on those races soon.
