On Monday at 10:57 p.m. ET, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), part of the National Weather Service, issued a Level 4 (Severe) geomagnetic solar storm warning.

This follows two coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that occurred last Friday and Saturday.

Meteorologists expect the storm’s intensity to fluctuate between G2 and G3 levels through Tuesday night, with a possible additional period of G4 conditions.

What does this mean?

According to SWPC, a G4 storm can cause a variety of problems. You may notice voltage irregularities that utilities may need to address.

Satellites in low Earth orbits could experience increased air resistance and could temporarily disrupt satellite navigation systems and high-frequency radio communications.

To keep power grid operators informed, SWPC has activated the North American Reliability Corporation hotline.

Key partners, including the FAA, NASA’s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG), and FEMA, receive regular updates.

If you live in more southern areas like Alabama or northern California, you may be lucky enough to catch a glimpse of the Northern Lights, even if they appear faint.

Understanding geomagnetic solar storms

A geomagnetic storm occurs when solar activity such as solar flares or coronal mass ejections (CMEs) disrupts Earth’s magnetic field.

These storms are driven by the solar wind, a stream of charged particles released from the Sun’s upper atmosphere.

When these particles interact with Earth’s magnetic field, they can cause a variety of effects, from beautiful auroras to disruptions to power and communications systems.

Expected areas and impacts

The following could happen during this event:

• Power supply systems: Voltage irregularities may occur, leading to possible disruptions or false alarms in power grids. Operators should be particularly alert to any unusual activity.

• Satellites and spacecraft: Satellites in low Earth orbit may experience increased air drag and charging on the surface, potentially leading to orientation problems or a shortened lifetime.

• GPS and navigation systems: Satellite navigation (GPS) may experience temporary problems such as signal loss or increased positioning errors. This may affect not only personal GPS devices but also air and maritime traffic.

• Radio communication: High frequency (HF) radio links can be unreliable, particularly in polar regions, thereby affecting air and maritime traffic and emergency services that rely on these frequencies.

• Northern Lights: More positive news is that the geomagnetic storm could produce spectacular auroras, likely visible in the southern United States.

Overview of solar storm activity

On September 17, 2024, solar activity remains low. The strongest recorded outburst was a 9.6-magnitude outburst from region 3825 on September 16.

Regions 3824 and 3825 show slight changes, while the new region 3828 has appeared. However, no coronal mass ejections directed towards Earth have been detected.

Solar activity is expected to increase to moderate levels today (R1-R2), with a low probability of Class X eruptions (R3).

Beginning on September 18 and 19, the probability of M-class eruptions decreases as regions 3814 and 3822 rotate around the northwest rim.

Particle activity and solar storm wind

Over the last 24 hours, electron flux above 2 MeV was moderate to high, peaking at 2,240 pfu. Proton flux reached low levels this morning.

In the next few days, a decrease in electron flow is expected due to CME influences. There is a small chance that proton levels will reach lower thresholds again.

The solar wind is currently being affected by the recent CMEs, with the overall magnetic field and solar wind speed increasing. This increase suggests that the effects of the September 13-14 CMEs are still with us.

Forecasts suggest that solar wind conditions will still be affected by these coronal mass ejections today, but should calm down by tomorrow.

Stay alert and tuned

The current geomagnetic storm offers some exciting opportunities, especially for aurora observers.

While there may be some potential technical disruptions, agencies are prepared to address these challenges.

Stay tuned for updates from Earth.com and the SWPC as the situation develops!

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