US Vice President Kamala Harris at the White House, Washington, USA, July 22, 2024 and former US President Donald Trump in Bedminster, New Jersey, USA, August 15, 2024 in a combination of archive photos.
Nathan Howard | Jeenah Moon | Reuters
The results are in: Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris will defeat her Republican rival Donald Trump in the November 5 election – at least according to the historian who is considered the “Nostradamus” of presidential election predictions.
This is the latest election prediction from Allan Lichtman, a renowned professor at American University who boasts of having successfully predicted the outcome of every US presidential election since 1984.
Lichtman announced his decision in an opinion piece for the New York Times on Thursday morning.
“The Democrats will keep the White House and Kamala Harris will be the next president of the United States,” Lichtman said in the video.
“At least that’s my prediction for this race.”
His forecasts are based on a historical index model that he calls the “key to the White House.”
The unique system, which he developed in the early 1980s with Russian geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, analyzes the political landscape through the lens of 13 true-false statements that focus on the party of the incumbent president.
If six or more of the statements are false, a victory for challenger Trump is predicted.
Here are the keys and Lichtman’s findings for each:
- Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party has more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. INCORRECT
- Competition: There is no serious competition for the incumbent party nomination. TRUE
- Term of office: The candidate of the incumbent party is the incumbent president. INCORRECT
- Third party: There is no significant campaign by third parties or independent parties. TRUE
- Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE
- Long-term economics: Real economic growth per capita during the term of office equals or exceeds the average growth during the two previous terms of office. TRUE
- Policy change: The current government is making profound changes in state politics. TRUE
- Social unrest: There were no sustained social unrest during his term in office. TRUE
- Scandal: The current government is free of major scandals. TRUE
- Charisma of the incumbent: The candidate of the incumbent party is charismatic or a national hero. INCORRECT
- Challenger Charisma: The opposing party’s candidate is neither charismatic nor a national hero. TRUE
- Foreign/military failure: The current government has not suffered any major failures in either foreign policy or military affairs.
- Foreign/military successes: The incumbent government achieves major foreign policy or military successes.
Regarding the last two keys, Lichtman said: “Foreign policy is a delicate matter, and these keys could tip over.”
He pointed out that the Biden administration is deeply involved in the Israeli war in the Gaza Strip, which he described as a “humanitarian catastrophe with no foreseeable end.”
“But even if both foreign policy keys were wrong, that would mean there would be only five negative keys, which would not be enough for Donald Trump to recapture the White House,” Lichtman told the Times.
Lichtman’s analysis largely dispenses with poll numbers, campaign strategies, soundbites, policy plans and other factors that most political commentators and analysts rely on.
But his system produced results.
Lichtman was one of the few political analysts who accurately predicted before the 2016 election that Trump would defeat then-Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. However, Lichtman’s model suggested that Trump would win a majority of the popular vote, which he lost despite securing a majority in the Electoral College.
Lichtman correctly predicted that President Joe Biden would beat Trump in the 2020 race.
Despite the unprecedented circumstances of the 2024 campaign – including the fact that Harris replaced Biden as the nominee in the final months of the race – Lichtman expressed confidence that his keys would lead to an accurate prediction.
“The keys will definitely work. They are the constant North Star of political forecasting,” he said in Thursday’s video.
“The outcome is in your hands,” he added. “So go vote.”
