This week’s Economist/YouGov poll looks at the state of the Harris-Trump race, the vice presidential candidates and their military service, the war between Israel and Hamas, and the Olympics.

Harris vs Trump

• Vice President Kamala Harris remains two percentage points ahead of former President Donald Trump among registered voters
• 46 percent want to vote for Harris in November, 44 percent prefer Trump

• More Harris supporters than Trump supporters are paying close attention to the election (67% vs. 60%); in last week’s poll, these figures were 61% vs. 63%
• Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they are very or extremely enthusiastic about voting for the president (67% versus 65%).

• Americans are equally likely to expect a Harris victory and a Trump victory in November (40% versus 40%)

• 50% of registered voters say Trump is more likely to say what he believes than what he thinks people want to hear.
• 49% of registered voters are more likely to say Harris says what they think people want to hear than what she believes.
• Both Walz and Vance say what they really believe rather than what they think people want to hear.
• More registered voters think Trump is corrupt than say so about Harris; more say Harris is intelligent and qualified

The vice presidential candidates

• 47% of registered voters consider Tim Walz a very or fairly good choice as the Democratic vice presidential candidate, while 34% consider him a poor choice.
• Forty-one percent think Ohio Senator JD Vance, Walz’s Republican counterpart, is a good choice, while 42 percent think he is a bad choice.

• Forty-two percent of registered voters think Walz will help Harris win, while 16 percent think he will hurt her chances.
• Twenty-four percent of registered voters believe Vance will help Trump win, while 29 percent believe he will hurt Trump’s chances.

• About two-thirds of registered voters know that JD Vance served in the military, and a similar proportion know that Walz
• The majority of registered voters say Vance and Walz served honorably; more say Walz did not serve honorably than Vance,
• Harris voters are more likely to say Vance served honorably than Trump supporters say Walz

The war between Israel and Hamas

• The presidential candidates’ supporters hold very different views on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: About two-thirds of Trump supporters say their sympathies lie more with the Israelis, while about two-thirds of Harris supporters say their sympathies lie either with the Palestinians or equally with the Palestinians and the Israelis.
• Most Trump supporters (63%) see Harris as pro-Palestinian
• Majority of Harris supporters and Trump supporters say Trump is more sympathetic to Israel

• Thirty-three percent of Americans say they sympathize more with Israelis, including 19 percent of adults under 45 and 44 percent of older adults.
• Nineteen percent of Americans say their sympathies lie with the Palestinians, including 31 percent of adults under 45 and 9 percent of older adults.

The Olympic Games

• More than half of American adults watched some events at the Summer Olympics, which saw gender parity among athletes for the first time.
• Viewers in the US said they saw more women’s events than men’s
• 62% to 38% of men say they mainly watch men’s competitions
• 81% of women were more willing to watch women’s events, 19% more

• Older men are more likely than younger men to have seen more women’s events than men’s events, and the same is true for older women compared to younger women.
• The majority of men and women who watched the Olympic Games in Paris say the host city was excellent or good
• 49% of Americans expect Los Angeles to be excellent or good at hosting the 2028 Olympic Games.
• The Olympic sport that women are most likely to rank among their five favorites is gymnastics, followed by swimming; for men, basketball, swimming and track and field are the top choices.

Some numbers in this report may differ by 1 due to rounding.

— Carl Bialik and Taylor Orth contributed to this article

Check out the Toplines And Crosstabs for the Economist/YouGov poll from 11 to 13 August 2024

methodology: The survey was conducted among 1,567 U.S. adults. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to represent U.S. adults. A random sample (stratified by gender, age, race, education, geographic region, and voter registration) was selected from the 2019 American Community Survey. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, education, voter turnout in the 2020 election and presidential election, base party affiliation, and current voter registration status. Demographic weighting targets are from the 2019 American Community Survey. Base party affiliation is the respondent’s last response before November 1, 2022, and is weighted by the estimated distribution at that time (33% Democrat, 31% Republican). The margin of error for the overall sample is approximately 3%.

Image: Getty (Andrew Harnik / Stringers)

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