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Harris, Trump and the future of corporate taxes
Idaho

Harris, Trump and the future of corporate taxes

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will clash over the level of corporate taxes in the next two months.

As president, Trump pushed for lower corporate tax rates and got them. In 2017, Congress cut the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.

The corporate tax as we know it today was introduced in 1909. In 1910, the tax rate was only 1%, but in 1968 it was 52.8%. According to the IRS, the average tax rate between 1909 and 2024 was 32.08%.

In 2022, Congress under President Joe Biden passed the Inflation Reduction Act, which required large corporations to pay a tax rate of at least 15%, regardless of the number of deductions and credits they have.

Trump announces that he will further reduce corporate taxes. Harris proposes an increase to 28 percent.

And yet, judging by the campaign contributions I’ve looked at, business leaders seem to be leaning more toward Harris than Trump.

Here’s a look at the tax rates of four notable companies, their political donations in the 2023-2024 election cycle, and my thoughts on their stock.

I chose these four companies because they were featured in a 2022 Fortune magazine article about companies that “paid almost nothing or no taxes in 2021.” Since then, their taxes have increased, at least in part due to the Biden minimum tax rate.

Amazon.com

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) paid less than 19% in corporate taxes in four of the last five years. However, in 2022, the company paid quite a lot (54% of pretax profits).

People close to Amazon donated $438,360 to the Harris campaign, according to Open Secrets, a website that tracks political donations and lobbying spending, but only $102,292 to the Trump campaign.

Amazon.com’s contributions to political action committees (PACs) were relatively small and split roughly evenly between Democrats and Republicans.

Amazon.com’s stock is expensive, trading at 42 times recent earnings and nearly eight times book value (the company’s net assets). I’m a cheapskate and wouldn’t buy it. But most analysts would. Of 60 analysts covering the stock, 59 recommend it as a “buy” or “outperform.”

Dare I go against so much expert opinion? Of course. A study I conduct each January tracks the fortunes of the stocks most loved by analysts and those most despised by them. Universal love for a stock is not a good sign. The revered stocks have underperformed the Standard & Poor’s 500 Total Return Index.

ExxonMobil

At Exxon Mobil Inc. (XOM), the tax rate was recently around 29 percent.

According to Open Secrets, companies affiliated with Exxon Mobil have donated about $155,000 to the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee and $32,500 to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee this year.

People associated with Exxon Mobil donated $37,678 to Trump and $22,849 to Harris, the website said.

The stock, which trades at 14 times earnings and a little less than two times book value, looks attractive to me. I think the transition to solar and wind energy will take a long time and fossil fuels will continue to be important at least into the 2030s.

AT&T

AT&T’s tax rate was recently about 21% and has not been higher since 2015.

Open Secrets’ analysis shows that AT&T donated more money to PACs supporting Democrats (about $350,000) than Republicans (about $225,000). People associated with AT&T donated $119,341 to the Harris campaign and $68,371 to the Trump campaign.

The stock? It pays an attractive dividend with a yield of 5.6%. But it has not been a good investment, as it has lost 25% over the past five years. The company’s debt load is higher than I would like.

Microsoft

At Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), the tax rate was recently around 18% and had not risen above 19% since 2018.

Individuals close to Microsoft donated $1.1 million to the Democratic National Committee Services Corp., and the company itself donated $15,000. Individuals close to the company donated $120,215 to the Republican National Committee.

Individuals from the Microsoft community donated $580,872 to Harris, while Trump donated $81,706.

Microsoft is a profit giant. The operating profit margin is almost 45%. The return on equity is very high at around 37%.

That makes the stock arguably worth its current valuation of 35 times earnings and more than 11 times book value. I’m not one for “paying more for quality,” but I understand why many people do it.

Disclosure: I own Exxon Mobil stock for some clients. My wife, who is a portfolio manager at my firm, owns Microsoft stock for me personally and for clients; I own it for a client.

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