Since mid-August, Republicans have aired more campaign ads than Democrats in almost every district in the country, with the exception of a few counties, notably Wisconsin and Michigan, where supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign are pouring money into the ads, according to a new analysis by the Wesleyan Media Project.
The trend of pro-Trump TV ads comes after President Joe Biden significantly outperformed the Trump campaign before dropping out of the race, the analysis found. In early July, the then-Biden campaign launched a $50 million ad campaign denouncing Trump for his felony convictions.
But the Trump campaign appears to have expanded its ad presence after Harris replaced Biden at the top of the ballot box. In most of the 210 media markets in the U.S., the Trump campaign and Republican political action committees are running more ads than their Democratic counterparts.
But that doesn’t mean Democrats aren’t investing in key swing states, including Wisconsin. Here’s how both campaigns are handling TV ads.
Where in Wisconsin do Democrats broadcast more advertising than Republicans?
In only eight of the 25 swing states analyzed in the report do Democrats advertise more than Republicans. These include two states in Wisconsin: Milwaukee and Green Bay.
In Milwaukee, Democrats are spending $1.8 million to air 1,058 commercials, while Republicans are spending $1.16 million on 848 commercials. That means Democrats are spending an additional $640,000 in Milwaukee.
In Green Bay, the difference is even greater: Democrats spent twice as much money as Republicans. Democrats spent $2.34 million to air 1,708 commercials, while Republicans spent $1 million on 989 commercials.
The investment in Wisconsin is another sign that Harris’ campaign team is particularly focused on winning the state in November: This week, Harris and Walz made their third visit to the state in less than a month with a rally at the Fiserv Forum.
Republicans advertise more, but Democrats spend more money
Between July 12 and August 11, the Trump campaign spent more than $10 million on nearly 15,000 ads. In particular, the number of pro-Trump ads increased significantly after Biden’s exit. In the week after the president ended his campaign, the number of pro-Trump ads nearly doubled.
Nevertheless, the Harris campaign, which only launched at the end of July, managed to spend more money than Trump in the same period. The campaign spent more than $15 million on around 12,500 ads.
In other words, the Harris campaign spent more money on fewer ads last month. The same trend holds for pro-Harris and pro-Democratic ads generally: The campaign and political action committees spent a combined more than $60 million on about 33,000 ads. By comparison, the Republican side spent just under $50 million on about 44,000 ads.
Travis Ridout, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, said this may be because pro-Harris groups invest in more expensive media markets. Ad prices can vary drastically, he said: A middle-of-the-night ad in a small media market might cost just a few dollars, while an ad on a major city’s local news could fetch campaigns several thousand dollars.
It’s possible that Republicans are paying for more advertising in cheaper markets during cheaper times, said Ridout, who is also a political science professor at Washington State University.
“The more you pay, the more attention you attract,” he added.
What other markets do Democrats invest in?
In addition to Milwaukee and Green Bay, Democrats also outperform Republicans in six other districts. The districts are in Michigan and Georgia, both swing states that Biden narrowly won in 2020.
Here are the other media markets where Democrats are running more TV ads:
- Detroit
- Grand Rapids, Michigan
- Flint, Michigan
- Lansing, Michigan
- Traverse City, Michigan
- Columbus, Georgia
