North Carolina Republicans are facing troubling signs in the race for governor, while their candidate, Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson, is surrounded by a barrage of negative headlines.

Most polls in recent months have put Democrat Josh Stein, the state’s attorney general, ahead of Robinson, an ally of former President Trump who has been criticized for his past rhetoric on everything from abortion to the civil rights movement.

Some Republicans fear Robinson’s controversial personality could cost her the governorship. And the challenge may become even greater for him as Vice President Harris also appears to have gained a foothold in the state.

“That’s the dominant feature of this campaign,” said Republican strategist Doug Heye, referring to the controversy surrounding Robinson’s previous statements.

Robinson first rose to prominence in 2018 when he spoke out in favor of gun rights at a Greensboro City Council meeting, which helped launch his successful run for lieutenant governor in 2020. He narrowly won the election, becoming the state’s first black lieutenant governor, although incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper was re-elected by a slightly larger margin.

Throughout his political career, Robinson has rallied the right as a strong Trump ally and champion of conservative principles. But his principles and rhetoric have sometimes caused friction.

Robinson has made a number of controversial comments before taking office, including disparaging comments about Jews, Muslims, transgender people and black people who support Democrats. He has called Muslims “invaders,” referred to homosexuality and “transgenderism” as “filth,” and criticized feminism as “watered down by the devil.”

He called abortion “murder” and “genocide” and said it was about not being “responsible enough to keep your skirt down.” With these comments, Stein’s campaign team went on the offensive against Robinson.

He has since softened his stance on abortion, an issue Democrats view as critical both in the state and across the country. His campaign released an ad last month sharing that his wife had an abortion 30 years ago, calling it a “very difficult decision.”

Robinson also said he supports the state’s current abortion law, which allows abortion after 12 weeks of pregnancy, and provides “reasonable exceptions” to protect the life of the mother and in cases of rape and incest.

Stein, who has run without major lapses, has seen a significant rise in the polls in recent weeks. Stein currently leads Robinson by more than 9 points in the Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average, reflecting several polls published in recent weeks that have given him a lead of at least that amount.

“And that is mainly because voters are appalled by so many things Robinson said,” Heye said.

Polls show Robinson trailing significantly among women, while the two candidates are competing for the title among male voters.

According to a recent poll from The Hill/Emerson College Polling, Stein is ahead by 6 points overall. While the candidates were roughly tied among men, Stein was ahead by 12 points among women. According to a New York Times/Siena College poll from last month, Stein was ahead by 10 points and Robinson by 5 points among men. However, Stein was ahead by 23 points among women, which added to his lead.

Despite Stein’s lead, both campaign teams stress that they expect a neck-and-neck race in November in one of the most hotly contested pre-election battlegrounds.

Stein’s campaign manager, Jeff Allen, said in a statement to The Hill that voters are learning the difference between attorney general and lieutenant governor and that Stein “fights for the people” while Robinson “fights job-killing culture wars.”

“But make no mistake: This race is going to be very close,” Allen said. “Our campaign is working hard to win every vote and to make it clear to people that Josh Stein will build a safer and stronger North Carolina as governor.”

Mike Lonergan, Robinson’s communications director, told The Hill that despite Stein’s significant lead in fundraising, Robinson is “building the gap and connecting with voters of all backgrounds across the state,” citing the Emerson poll that had him trailing by 6 points.

Lonergan also pointed to another poll that showed Robinson trailing by just 4 points, and noted that polls have underestimated Republican support on several occasions recently.

“With a large portion of the electorate still undecided as we continue to ramp up our efforts on the ground and on the air, Mark Robinson remains well placed to win in November,” he said.

Republicans in this state have performed better in polls in the past.

In 2020, Cooper led Republican Dan Forest by double digits, according to pre-Election Day polls, but ultimately won by 4.5 points. In the 2016 election cycle, Cooper regularly led in the polls in the final month of the race, but narrowly edged out then-Governor Pat McCrory (R) by about 0.2 points.

Polls also showed Democrats Hillary Clinton and President Biden narrowly ahead in 2016 and 2020, respectively, before both narrowly lost the state to Trump.

Republican strategist Jonathan Felts, who served as an adviser to Senator Ted Budd’s (R-N.C.) 2022 campaign, said the Republicans’ outperformance suggests a much closer race than polls suggest.

Members of both parties acknowledged that North Carolina is one of the largest swing states in the country and that this year’s results are likely to reinforce that assessment.

“We never trusted polls that showed us up by double digits, and we never trusted polls that showed us down by double digits on Ted’s election,” Felts said.

Some polls in recent days show that Stein’s lead has shrunk somewhat and is now only in the mid-single digits. In a poll conducted by East Carolina University, he was even 6 points ahead.

Felts also noted that Stein has left Robinson far behind in ad support and reservations, and flooded the airwaves with attacks on him. Stein has a more than 2-1 lead in ad support so far, but that difference is unlikely to last.

“The fact is they haven’t completely gotten rid of Mark Robinson yet, using the same tactics they tried with Ted Budd in 2022,” he said, adding that Republicans will have to “get back” to Robinson soon, which he expects will happen.

Polls have overwhelmingly shown that Democrats are more supportive of Stein than Republicans are of Robinson.

The numbers are fueling optimism among Democrats who hope to retain the governorship and push the state to elect a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time since 2008.

Aimy Steele, a former Democratic candidate for the state House of Representatives who runs the New North Carolina Project, an organization that advocates for increased voter turnout among black and brown voters, said Stein focused on bragging about his record in “maintaining order” and expanding rape kit testing.

“I think that if we inflate polls or look at surveys, we can get the false impression that everything is OK. And we don’t need that approach at all,” she said. “There’s still a lot at stake.”

Gabe Esparza, a former Democratic candidate for state treasurer, argued that Stein and Harris could help each other in their campaigns over the next two months, noting that Harris and members of the Biden administration regularly visit the state.

In the weeks since she entered the race, polls have shown Harris and Trump neck and neck, and Decision Desk HQ/The Hill polling averages currently have them tied for the state.

“I think you’ve seen the increased attention demonstrate not only a belief that North Carolina could actually not only be in the race but could realistically win,” Esparza said. “But it’s also an opportunity for Josh and the Democratic candidates on the ballot to capitalize on that enthusiasm.”

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