Demand varied across regions. In China, TV sales were weaker than expected due to a sluggish housing market and changing viewing habits among younger consumers. In North America, continued low-price competition helped sustain demand, while in Europe a combination of sporting events and low inflation over the past two years contributed to better-than-expected TV shipments in the first half of the year.
The traditional peak season for TV demand is in the second half of the year, meaning shipment growth is expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace. With panel prices rising in the first half of the year and consumers still preferring inexpensive TVs, brands have not been able to fully pass on costs, prompting them to scale back promotional activities. Instead, they are focusing on developing larger mid- to high-end products to reduce losses. This shift is expected to increase the average size of TVs by 1.4 inches to 55.5 inches in 2024. However, TrendForce forecasts total TV shipments for the year to decline 0.2% to a total of 195.09 million units.
In the first half of 2024, the top five TV brands were Samsung Electronics, Hisense, TCL, LG Electronics and Xiaomi. TCL ranked third, just behind Hisense. Thanks to strong market coverage in key retail channels in Europe and emerging regions, TCL surpassed Hisense in the second quarter with 6.68 million units sold, with both quarterly and annual growth exceeding 10%. TrendForce says TCL – supported by its group’s panels and highly automated production processes – is well positioned to target second place in total shipments in 2024.
Mini-LED TVs exceed expectations, driving 55% sales growth this year
In recent years, global inflation and rising interest rates have caused consumers to become more price-conscious, which has fueled the rise of affordable TVs. In the U.S. market, deep discounts previously seen only on Black Friday, such as $99 for a 32-inch HDTV or $399 for a 65-inch UHD TV, have become more common due to the push of private label brands. The regular price of a 65-inch UHD TV even dropped to $299, forcing other brands to follow suit to maintain their market share.
TrendForce notes that in the first half of 2024, TV brands faced not only rising panel prices but also increased shipping costs, which brought them to the brink of losses. Companies continued to increase product sizes to improve their financial position. Chinese brands such as TCL, Xiaomi and Hisense further stimulated consumer demand by reducing the number of mini-LED zones, allowing them to offer products at more competitive prices.
This strategy successfully increased demand. Total shipments of mini-LED TVs are expected to increase 55% year-on-year to 6.35 million units. For the first time, the combined market share of these three Chinese brands is expected to exceed 50%, overtaking Samsung. Although Samsung is still the market leader with a 25% market share, this represents a decline of 17 percentage points year-on-year. If Samsung fails to launch a killer product in 2025, its market share in mini-LED TVs could be overtaken by TCL.
OLED TV shipments recover to 6 million units
Following a 20% decline in OLED TV shipments in 2023, brands have adjusted their promotional strategies for 2024. LG Electronics responded to Samsung’s entry into the white OLED TV market by increasing its promotional discounts to 25-33% during the peak season, which boosted sales and pushed total OLED TV shipments up 15.9% year-on-year to 6.23 million units. LG and Samsung, the two leading South Korean brands, captured 53.3% and 22.5% of the market, respectively. TrendForce notes that if OLED TV costs cannot be effectively optimized by 2025 and the technology stops attracting major brands, shipments could stagnate between 6 and 6.5 million units.
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