It was long assumed that third baseman Matt Chapman would opt out of his recently signed pillow contract with the San Francisco Giants thanks to a strong 2024 season, and it was almost equally assumed that both sides would seriously consider extending a new contract.
I didn’t expect it to happen in early September though, as that’s an extremely rare time for a new deal to happen. But here we are:
The 31-year-old Chapman, like some other Scott Boras clients, found the free agent market rather cool last offseason and signed a three-year, $54 million deal with the Giants. Like the other Boras contracts, the contract included an opt-out clause, allowing Chapman to re-enter the market if he had a good season. He posted a batting average of .247/.333/.445/118 wRC+ for the Giants while playing his typically strong defense at third base.
However, extending Chapman’s contract in this particular deal seems awfully aggressive. A $25 million AAV is obviously reasonable, but those six years will be Chapman’s age 32-37 seasons. I’m sure the Giants have a good estimate of what his market would have been, but Chapman is currently headed for his first 5-win season since 2019. The last three years have all been between 3.0 and 3.9 WAR, and that’s probably more of the optimistic case for the seasons in the second half of this deal. Hey, if he’s worth 5 million again the next two seasons, then this deal is probably fine. It just feels like more than I would have expected for him in the offseason, and the Giants are paying it for an extension.
As for Chapman, what a win. Before last offseason, no one would have expected a 7-year, $171 million contract, but that’s actually what he earned by taking the risk for 2024. Well done. He’s clearly made himself absolutely indispensable to the Giants.
Meanwhile, the Giants also have to think about Blake Snell, one of the other free agents from last offseason’s Boras Four, who signed a pillow opt-out contract and is leaving after the season. Jordan Montgomery will not opt out of his contract with the Diamondbacks, and Cody Bellinger is likely still undecided on his contract with the Cubs.