State elections in Germany have far more than just regional significance – they are seen as a barometer of the performance of the federal government. That is why the results are significant, even though only two of the 16 federal states cast their votes on September 1 – with 5 million eligible voters, a fraction of the 61 million eligible voters across the country.

It is the first time that the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) received more than a third of the votes in a state election. The parties that make up the Berlin federal government have also never achieved such poor results in a state election.

In the eastern German states of Saxony and Thuringia, the far-right AfD received more than twice as many votes as the three parties that make up the federal government – the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the ecological Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) – combined. The results of these parties are each in the single digits. The Greens in Thuringia and the FDP in both states did not even reach the 5% hurdle to enter the state parliaments.

“Punishment” for the government in Berlin?

According to opinion polls before the elections, the SPD was also threatened with exclusion from the state parliaments, but it was ultimately spared this debacle.

Four out of five German voters are dissatisfied with the work of the federal government – and have been for a long time. The monthly survey by the opinion research institute infratest dimap regularly shows poor results for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his ministers.

The coalition is seen as incapable of taking action and embroiled in constant disputes. Even the government’s rapid and united response to the fatal knife attack in Solingen shortly before the election was ineffective. With a view to the immigration debate in the election campaign, the federal government announced a tougher migration and security policy last week and surprisingly deported 28 asylum seekers who had committed crimes to Afghanistan.

The AfD sees its broad voter base as confirmation of its support. The state elections have given her party a “historic” success, said AfD chairwoman Alice Weidel on Sunday, calling for the federal government to withdraw.

“It is also a punishment for the federal government, it is a requiem for this coalition,” she said. “The government in Berlin should ask itself whether it can continue to govern at all. This question of new elections should be asked at the latest after the (upcoming) election in Brandenburg, because things cannot go on like this.”

All eyes are on Brandenburg

Elections will be held in the eastern German state of Brandenburg on September 22nd. There, too, the AfD is ahead in the polls, closely followed by the Social Democrats. The SPD will do everything it can to keep calm until election day, because the vote will be crucial for them.

The party has been in government in Brandenburg since 1990. “I expect everyone to try harder than ever before,” said SPD leader Lars Klingbeil on Sunday evening in Berlin. The party must work together to win back votes, he said. “Everyone must now do their part to make things better.”

Despite the disastrous results in Thuringia and Saxony, Chancellor Scholz can continue to count on the support of his party, said Klingbeil, rejecting discussions about personnel changes in the SPD. The SPD leadership has stressed that Scholz will lead the party into the next federal election.

This sense of unity could quickly crumble if Brandenburg’s Prime Minister Dietmar Woidke, who has been in office for eleven years, is not re-elected. In this case, rumors could grow louder within the SPD that the far more popular Defense Minister Boris Pistorius could become the candidate for chancellor in the federal election in September 2025.

Challenges for the coalition

Will the coalition of SPD, Greens and FDP last until then? The dismal results in the state elections and the miserable poll ratings at the federal level have not only dampened the mood.

Even within the individual parties, the calls for more visibility and profiling are becoming louder. “For my party, it will now also be about showing itself to be more emancipatory and making it clearer what is only possible with the SPD and that we will no longer allow ourselves to be led around by the nose by other parties,” said SPD state secretary Kevin Kühnert.

Possible areas of conflict include the 2025 budget, which must soon be approved by the Bundestag. It also remains to be seen whether the government will succeed in implementing its recently announced stricter migration policy. Some critical voices in the left wing of the SPD and the Greens do not agree with the plans to restrict immigration.

None of the three governing parties can afford to let the coalition fail. If early national elections were to take place, according to current polls, they would no longer have a majority. The winners would be their rivals AfD and CDU or CSU. The Union, which is the largest opposition party in the Bundestag, has long been calling for the government to resign.

“The traffic light parties have been punished,” said CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann on Sunday. “A chancellor’s party that only achieves a single-digit result in two eastern German states must ask itself whether it is still making politics for all people in Germany.”

The Union will continue to increase the pressure on the federal government. It is not only demanding a rapid implementation of the announced changes in migration policy, but is also pushing for further tightening of the laws.

After the knife attack in Solingen, CDU chairman Friedrich Merz spoke of an “overload limit” that had been exceeded in Germany. He called on the federal government to declare a “national state of emergency” in order to be able to turn away asylum seekers directly at the German border.

This article was originally written in German.

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