In a highly competitive SEC Conference, the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs and the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide meet in what could be one of the biggest regular season games of the 2024 college football season. With both teams seeking a decisive win on their schedule, this year’s Georgia-Alabama game, a rematch of last year’s SEC championship game, is expected to have significant implications for the College Football Playoff and the National Championship. The Bulldogs travel to Tuscaloosa on Saturday as slight favorites with a one-point lead over the Crimson Tide. The line opened at 3 a.m. earlier in the week but has gotten shorter each day and could be a good bet before kickoff at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN+.

For Alabama, the duel is perhaps the first real test for new coach Kalen Deboer. If the current line holds, the Crimson Tide will be home underdogs for the first time since 2007, Nick Saban’s first season. They have a Heisman candidate at quarterback in Jalen Milroe (+750 to win on ESPN BET) and plenty of weapons around him.

Kirby Smart’s team now has a potential number 1 pick under center in Carson Beck. While Georgia’s last game, a narrow 13-12 victory over the powerful Kentucky Wildcats team, may have been unexpected, the Bulldogs will be more than ready to exact revenge against their heated SEC opponent.

Here’s what you need to know to bet on this top-5 clash on Saturday night.

Odds are current as of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

The lines

Spread: Georgia (-1)
Money line: Georgia (-120), Alabama (even)
Over/under: 50.5

Distribution in the first half: Georgia -0.5 (+102), Alabama +0.5 (-125)
Total points Georgia: O/U 24.5 (Straight/-130)
Alabama Total Score: O/U 24.5 (-110/-120)

Pam’s take on Georgia-Alabama

This Saturday marks the first non-neutral game between Georgia and Alabama since 2020, with the Crimson Tide having home-field advantage. While Alabama’s offense looked impressive, their opponents’ defensive rankings (91st or worse in yards per play) raise questions about the true strength of their offense.

Georgia’s defense, which ranks 4th in yards allowed per game, will pose a formidable challenge to Alabama’s offense. The Bulldogs were particularly strong on the run, allowing just 3.07 yards per carry (27th in the country). This could force Alabama to rely more heavily on their passing game.

Jalen Milroe has been efficient with a 67% completion rate, but 27 of his 35 passes in his last game against Wisconsin came from 0-9 yards. While Milroe shined with his accuracy on deep throws last season, he only has five touchdowns of 20 yards and three of those came in Week 3 against a stymied Wisconsin team.

Georgia has played a stronger schedule so far this season, which has prepared the Bulldogs for high-pressure situations and high-level competition.

With Nick Saban gone, Kirby Smart, who previously had a 1-5 record against Saban, can approach this year’s game with confidence and give Georgia a larger lead that the team lacked in previous meetings against Alabama.

Even though I lean towards covering Georgia, this is a risky proposition as there is no clarity about the performance of both teams compared to the top competition. For me, this is a “watch and learn” type game. It’s also always an option to pass on a matchup that seems to offer little value both on the side and overall.

Betting trends

Courtesy of ESPN Research

• Alabama: As a regular-season underdog for the first time since 2015 (+1 at Georgia; won 38-10); Prior to that, Alabama had not been an underdog in the regular season since No. 3 Georgia in 2008 (+6.5, won 41-30); won 3 straight games in the regular season and was an underdog

• Alabama has been the favorite in 113 consecutive home games (last time as a home underdog: 2007 vs. No. 3 LSU – lost by 7 as a 7-point underdog)

• Georgia: will be a favorite for the 47th straight game (last time as an underdog: 2021 vs. No. 3 Clemson – won 10-3 as a 2.5-point underdog)

• Georgia: 10-4 ATS against top-five teams over the last 10 years; Best in FBS (min. 10 games)

• 4th game in the last 10 seasons in which a top-5 team is a home underdog (these teams were 2-1 ATS in the last 3 seasons).

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