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Forecast: Rivian shares will rise due to new catalysts
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Forecast: Rivian shares will rise due to new catalysts

Rivian’s next electric vehicle will drive the stock price – the question is in which direction.

Rivian Automobiles (RIVN -4.00%) recently released its second-quarter earnings update and there were no real surprises. But it’s likely that we’re in the calm before the storm for Rivian, and investors should pay attention now.

That’s because the electric vehicle startup is preparing to begin production of its first new model, the R2 SUV, next year. The smaller and more affordable R3 will follow. If these new electric vehicles successfully launch, they should be major catalysts for Rivian stock. Investors who believe in the Rivian brand and see the success of its R1 models in a growing customer base should look at the stock before these catalysts impact the share price.

Rivian has found its market niche

Rivian differentiated itself from the market leader in electric vehicles Tesla from the beginning. As the first consumer electric vehicle, the company only launched a pickup truck and a large SUV model, entering a growing market that did not compete with Tesla’s popular Model 3 and Model Y.

This business plan has allowed the company to gain market share in vehicle markets where other all-electric offerings have yet to gain a foothold. At the same time, pickup trucks and SUVs have been among the best-selling light vehicles in the U.S. in recent years, as shown below. And Rivian now has plans to enter an even larger consumer market.

Bar chart showing the U.S. light commercial vehicle market in 2021 and 2022 by vehicle segment, with crossovers leading the way.

Image source: Statista.

Production of the next-generation SUV, R2, will begin next year, with deliveries expected to begin in early 2026. This smaller, cheaper model is expected to expand Rivian’s target market. After that, the company plans to enter the leading crossover segment with the R3.

These additional models will undoubtedly be catalysts that boost Rivian shares in the coming months. A solid order book for the R2 will likely lead to bullish views on the stock. Successful launches and testing will only reinforce those opinions. But positive results aren’t the only possibility. Any perceived decline in demand or the vehicles themselves could drive the stock price lower. Either way, investors should be prepared for volatility in the electric car maker’s stock in the near future.

Will Rivian’s next electric vehicle be a success?

Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe is already touting the R2’s features and how they differentiate it from Tesla’s Model Y. He says the R3 will have even more unique features. The R2, which will start at around $45,000, will be “worlds apart” from the Model Y, according to Scaringe.

He is keen to point out that Rivian’s support for outdoor use of its vehicles is an important and unique reason to want to own an R2 SUV. Scaringe recently explained, “You can actually drive it off-road, you can drive it through a riverbed, you can do everything you want an SUV to do with it.”

The R3, on the other hand, is advertised as offering the driving pleasure of a rally car with an unusually high ground clearance for the crossover vehicle segment.

Investors need a plan

If the launch is successful, the market is likely to respond positively to Rivian’s expanded product offering. Investors who believe in the company and its brand should take advantage of these catalysts.

However, investors must also be aware of the high risk and speculation involved. One way to hedge this risk is simply to invest a reasonable amount in a growth stock like Rivian. If the company is very successful, a small stake is enough. If it fails, that small investment is all you need.

Howard Smith holds positions in Rivian Automotive and Tesla. The Motley Fool holds positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

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