Two SEC rivals meet in Starkville this weekend. Both are 1-2 and hope to improve their record to .500 when the Florida Gators visit the Mississippi State Bulldogs on Saturday in Week 4 of college football. Here’s what to look for in the game with our updated prediction.
The Gators are already 0-1 in SEC play and have bigger worries: How long will it be before their head coach is fired?
Billy Napier was already in the hot seat, but the consensus now is that the question is when, not if.
A good performance in this game could delay the inevitable, but inevitable it seems.
Jeff Lebby is under some pressure himself, as the Bulldogs are fresh off a surprise 41-17 loss at home to MAC challenger Toledo. Although they are stronger at throwing the football, ranking 43rd nationally, they rank just 113th in the FBS in yardage.
What can we expect from this matchup? Here’s what to look for in the Florida vs. Mississippi State matchup, as well as our updated prediction for the game.
1. Alligator injuries. According to the team roster, 10 players are out for the game, including star wide receiver Eugene Wilson, 3 missing targets, 6 total defensemen and 4 starters.
Elijah Badger should emerge as Florida’s next big target. He ranks fourth in the SEC with 86.7 yards per game and 260 total yards and averages nearly 24 yards per pass reception, a key weapon to use early and often against MSU’s vulnerable secondary.
2nd Bulldogs air raid. Blake Shapen leads a passing game that has shown some potential, ranking 20th nationally with 834 yards and completing 70 percent of his passes.
His 7 TD passes are good enough for 18th place among all quarterbacks in the country and MSU also scores quickly: 6 of his 11 TD drives consisted of 5 plays or less.
3. Florida in defense. The Gators’ secondary struggled through three games, averaging 236 passes allowed per game, which ranked 92nd nationally and last among SEC teams.
There could be problems against receivers like Kevin Coleman Jr., who leads the FBS with 17.9 yards per game and ranks third in the SEC in total pass receiving production.
Lines provided courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
Florida: -6.5 (-115)
Mississippi State: +6.5 (-105)
Over 58.5 points: -105
Below 58.5 points: -115
While the Gators have the advantage on both lines, Shapen and the Bulldogs offense will stay on top of Florida’s vulnerable pass defense with a series of intermediate passes that will keep the chains moving.
But their inability to sustain long drives will benefit the Gators as the game progresses.
Florida will again rotate Graham Mertz and DJ Lagway as quarterbacks, but whoever is under center should find throwing lanes against a Bulldogs defense that ranks 94th in the FBS in total production and allowed Toledo to gain 10 yards per pass and 454 total yards last week.
Mississippi State ranks 122nd nationally in run defense. The team allows over 213 rushing yards per game and allows running backs an average of 4.58 yards per carry. It also struggles to generate a consistent pass rush – a weakness that will become apparent later in the game.
College Football HQ’s selection…
More … Result prediction for Florida vs. Mississippi State by expert model
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The game odds are updated regularly and are subject to change.
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