The Gulf of Mexico remains the zone to watch for tropical development and impacts on the United States in the coming days, and this time Florida could be the main target for any budding system next week.

Last week, as Helene moved inland with deadly and destructive flooding, AccuWeather’s long-range and hurricane experts indicated that the next new threat to the U.S. would likely come from the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean. This development zone is narrowed to the southern Gulf, and new storm formation could occur as early as this weekend or early next week.

AccuWeather meteorologists have classified the Gulf threat as a high developing risk, just as they did for Helene.

“Water temperatures continue to remain warm over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico after Helene,” said Alex DaSilva, senior hurricane expert at AccuWeather. “Not only is the water warm at the surface, it stays warm deep down, so the wave action of a storm has little cooling effect.”

The minimum water temperature for full tropical development is 78-80 F. Water temperatures in the southern Gulf of Mexico and northwest Caribbean Sea remain well into the 80s.

But it takes more than just warm water to bring a tropical system to life. There must be development impulses and disruptive breezes (wind shear) must be weak.

In the coming days, disorganized pockets of showers and thunderstorms will gather and grow in the waters around southern Mexico and western Cuba.

Tropical Depression 11-E formed Tuesday afternoon in the eastern Pacific, just off the coast of Mexico. It is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm before reaching Mexico on Wednesday afternoon. The next name on the list of Eastern Pacific hurricanes is Kristy.

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If it moved north and survived in the southwestern Gulf, it would retain its Eastern Pacific name, but it is difficult for a storm’s circulation to remain intact as it crosses the mountains of Central America.

“Regardless, this energy will likely result in development in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico from late this weekend into early next week,” DaSilva said. “This appears to be the greater threat to high-end developments, such as a hurricane, as it tends to spend more time, perhaps two additional days or longer, over the warm waters of the Gulf.”

AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said breezes next week would tend to steer any emerging tropical phenomenon toward the east coast of the Gulf of Mexico rather than the central Gulf Coast.

“It actually looks like Florida is likely to experience heavy rain and, depending on the strength of the storm, the possibility of heavy rain over the next week,” Rayno said.

It’s still early, but interests in Florida, from the northeastern Gulf Coast to the Keys as well as inland areas of the Sunshine State, should monitor the situation closely. Conditions could worsen by mid to late next week, with impacts of heavy rain and possible issues related to wind and storm surge.

Once confidence in the feature’s starting point is strengthened or a center is close to forming, AccuWeather will likely declare a tropical rain storm and begin publishing its own track maps.

At this early stage, a path north into the far Southeast, including the southern Appalachians ravaged by Helene, appears highly unlikely, but forecasters will continue to closely monitor all aspects of the weather pattern.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, Kirk, which formed in late September, is expected to quickly strengthen and become a major hurricane of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

“There is little to impede Kirk, and a strong hurricane is forecast for mid- to late-week, particularly posing a threat to shipping in the central Atlantic,” DaSilva said.

With few obstacles standing in his way, Kirk has the potential to last. It could affect parts of Western Europe around mid-October, possibly as a tropical wind and rainstorm.

AccuWeather meteorologists will also be monitoring tropical development north of the equator in the western Atlantic over the next few days. It is very likely that this phenomenon will become a tropical storm and hurricane in the short term. There is also a small risk of tropical development off the coast of the Carolinas near Bermuda.

The next names on the list of tropical storms and hurricanes for the 2024 Atlantic season are Leslie and Milton.

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