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Fantasy Football Week 1: Start, bench them
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Fantasy Football Week 1: Start, bench them

Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Many starts and sits are also obvious, so in this column we’ll focus on fringe options that really need to be thought through. Good luck with your Week 1 lineups!

Pickens has a tougher opponent as AJ Terrell will likely shadow him, but he’s still a top-30 WR on my list this week. In four games without Diontae Johnson last season, he posted a 38.4% first-read target rate and ranked in the top 20 in targets per route run (24.1%) and top five in yards per route run (2.93).

Whoever starts at quarterback for Pittsburgh will be an upgrade over Kenny Pickett. Pickens will face a Falcons pass-funnel defense that allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs last year, so he should have plenty to do on Sunday.

Justin Fields would be a top-12 QB if he started ahead of Russell Wilson this week.

Cook is in a good position at home against a Cardinals defense that allowed the most fantasy points by running backs last season. Arizona opponents had the second-highest run rate, averaging 30.6 runs last year, an NFL record.

Buffalo became the league’s most run-heavy team after Joe Brady took over as OC last year, while Cook’s role in the red zone also grew. The Bills have the second-highest team implied point total (27.0 points), so Cook should be treated as a borderline top-five running back this week.

Sit with Keon Colemanwho is expected to experience delayed development in his rookie season.

Williams will have to overcome a very shaky coaching staff in Chicago, but he’s the right fit and will add real fantasy value with his legs. The Titans are expected to be fast and pass-heavy, so the matchup looks favorable. Williams is worth starting right away in fantasy.

Start: Zack Moss and Chase Brown

Both of Cincinnati’s running backs should benefit from the game’s run, as the Bengals are 8.5-point favorites at home; New England’s implied point total is just 16.3 points. Ja’Marr Chase only recently returned to limited practice and remains questionable as to whether he will play after holding out all summer. Tee Higgins popped up on the injured list with a hamstring injury and missed Friday’s practice, so the Bengals will likely run as much as possible on Sunday.

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BONUS: Andrei Iosivas has easily secured the team’s WR3 job and is an insider tip.

Dell’s durability is questionable given his size, but he’s a threat to lead Houston in pass receivers any week he’s healthy. His route participation is expected to decline now that Stefon Diggs is in Houston, but Dell will still be heavily involved in the Texans’ offense, which is sure to throw more passes in 2024.

In five games they played together healthy last season when Dell was a rookie, he scored more fantasy points than Nico Collins. Sunday’s game is indoors and is expected to be fast-paced. CJ Stroud should have a monster performance in Week 1 that will benefit Dell.

Mostert, at 32, is at increased risk for injury this season, but he enters as Miami’s 1A back and is the clear favorite to work at the goal line. He scored a whopping 14 touchdowns in eight games in Miami last year, as the Dolphins averaged 31.9 points and an NFL-record 6.7 yards per game. Miami’s offense is traditionally stronger early in the season, and the Dolphins have the third-highest implied team point total (26.3 points).

For me, Raheem “Must Start” is a top 15 running back this week (and De’Von Achane is in the top 10).

Johnson is an elite separator who will dominate targets now in Carolina. Dave Canales will be a big help to the Panthers offense, as will Bryce Young, who should improve in year two. Johnson has a career target-per-run rate of over 30% against man coverage. He was also twice as efficient against man coverage (0.67 FP/RR) as against zone (0.33 FP/RR) in 2023; the Saints played the league’s fourth-highest man coverage rate last season, and DC Joe Woods returned.

Johnson’s run to over 100 catches begins on Sunday.

Singletary is clearly New York’s workhorse, and the game could be more favorable than usual for the Giants in Week 1. New York’s offense should be better this season, with an improved offensive line, new alpha WR Malik Nabers, who was added early in the draft, and Brian Daboll now calling the plays. Singletary will see a lot of volume in a fast-paced matchup, so he’s a top-25 RB this week.

Nabers is also off to a strong fantasy start in his NFL debut.

Palmer was listed on Thursday’s injury report with knee issues but participated fully in practice. Assuming he’s healthy, Palmer will likely immediately step in as LA’s WR1 (and lead the team in targets this season) since rookie Ladd McConkey won’t be able to work with Justin Herbert much throughout the preseason.

Herbert (foot) is ready for Week 1, and Palmer ranked in the top 25 in yards per route run (2.2) and top 12 in receiving yards per game (71.1) after Mike Williams was out last season. Palmer’s target rate per route run has risen to 20% over his career without Williams on the field, and Keenan Allen also left the team in the offseason.

Palmer was drafted outside the top 50 wide receivers in Yahoo leagues, but if all goes well, he could end up in the top 25.

Smith-Njigba had a disappointing rookie season, but a broken wrist and coaching were the main culprits. Seattle rarely used 3WR sets despite drafting JSN in the first round, and his average depth of target ranked 95th among wide receivers. In fact, he had by far the highest target percentage behind the line of scrimmage of any wideout.

Smith-Njigba should be a much bigger part of the improved Seahawks offense in 2024, led by new OC Ryan Grubb. Tyler Lockett starts the year with a knee injury, both Seattle tight ends are banged up, and Patrick Surtain will shadow DK Metcalf, so JSN has a good setup in Week 1.

Javonte Williams and Kenneth Walker are also both strong fantasy starters this week.

The Cowboys typically play much better at home, and they face an extremely tough opponent on the road in Week 1. The Browns allowed NFL lows in points per game (13.9) and yards per play (3.7!) at home last year, and Dallas downgraded its offensive line during the offseason. Prescott failed to finish as a top-15 fantasy QB in all five games against top-10 fantasy pass defenses in 2023. Prescott posted 8.6 YPA at home last season and averaged 308.8 passing yards and 2.8 passing touchdowns, compared to 6.8 YPA, 227.3 passing yards and 1.6 TDs on the road. Cleveland’s opponents had the third-lowest neutral pass rate in 2023.

Ferguson scored one touchdown in nine road games last season, and the Browns allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Rico Dowdle is not a good football player and will likely be on a three-man committee against a Browns defense that allowed by far the least EPA/play last season. The Cowboys have the fifth-lowest implied team point total (19.0) in Week 1, as they are projected to score fewer points than the Giants, Commanders and Steelers.

Still, CeeDee Lamb remains an elite fantasy starter against Cleveland’s man-heavy defense.

Daniels will certainly take too many sacks and make plenty of mistakes as a rookie, especially if he’s dealing with highly questionable coaching. But his exemplary running ability makes him an instant top-10 QB option, including Sunday’s fast-paced game at Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers were a pass-funnel defense last season, allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to running backs but the eighth-most to quarterbacks, including the second-most rushing touchdowns (six) for the position.

Daniels is another rookie who is ready to make an immediate fantasy impact in Week 1.

Goff has averaged 277.2 passing yards (7.9 YPA) with 44 touchdowns in 17 games in Detroit over the past two seasons. He lacks the fantasy potential of dual-threat QBs who run, but Goff is strong in home games. The Rams allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks last season and will now be without Aaron Donald.

The Lions have the NFL’s highest implied team point total (28.5 points) in a Week 1 matchup that should produce a lot of points. The Rams’ opponents had the third-highest neutral pass rate last year and DB Darious Williams was just placed on the injured list, so cheer for Goff in fantasy lineups.

BONUS: Colby Parkinson is an insider tip for anyone who needs help as a tight end.

The 49ers’ offense could be off to a slow start after Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, Aaron Banks and Trent Williams missed so much preseason practice, and a matchup against the Jets won’t help. San Francisco has issues with its offensive line, and New York is coming into the game with the best defense in the league. The Jets somehow allowed the fewest yards per play last season, even though their offense allowed the second fewest. New York allowed just 187.2 passing yards per game (6.1 YPA) last year and by far the fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Additionally, this game should produce a limited number of plays, as the 49ers are one of the slowest teams in the league and no quarterback likes to run out of playing time more than Aaron Rodgers. Purdy should be a top-10 fantasy QB most weeks, but he’s on the bench on Monday night.

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