quarterback

Baker Mayfield, Bucs (34% Yahoo roster rate)

The big question for the Bucs entering the season was whether Baker Mayfield could maintain his strong efficiency numbers after losing quarterback guru Dave Canales. He answered that question with an emphatic yes in Week 1. Mayfield easily led all quarterbacks with .689 EPA per play. He was also in the top five in PFF passing grade, yards per attempt and completion percentage above expected. Mayfield was the QB2 of the week with 289 yards and four touchdowns. He now gets a date with a Detroit defense that ranked 21st in EPA per dropback allowed in Week 1.

Derek Carr, Saints (10%)

This isn’t your father’s Saints offense anymore.

The Saints led the league in both efficiency and number of pre-snap throws. Carr also benefited from play-action on 40 percent of his dropbacks. The only quarterbacks who used play-action more frequently were Justin Fields and Anthony Richardson. PFF ranked Carr as their third-best passer in play-fake throws in Week 1. Klint Kubiak putting even modest effort into developing a modern passing attack naturally made Carr an MVP candidate.

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After being touted by John Harbaugh over the summer, Justice Hill played the same role for the Ravens in Week 1. He led all running backs with eight targets, catching six for 52 yards. The Ravens will crush the Raiders next week, which likely renders Hill useless for fantasy purposes. But matchups with the Cowboys and Bills over the next two weeks should keep him in the RB3/4 range.

Wide receiver

Demarcus Robinson, Rams (6%)

There’s nothing scarier than when someone predicts doom and is immediately proven right. Gregg Rosenthal was incredibly skeptical of the best rookie of all time, and then Puka Nacua dropped out and promptly injured his knee.

Cooper Kupp was targeted 21 times in Week 1. Kupp is locked in as a top-5 wide receiver while Nacua is out and there are plenty of routes for the remaining wideouts. Demarcus Robinson has already been used as the Rams’ WR3 and should get more calls if Nacua is out for an extended period.

Although Jordan Whittington received a lot of attention over the summer, Tyler Johnson played ahead of him after Nacua was out. Johnson can be accommodated in deeper leagues, but his performance in the NFL (or lack thereof) suggests we don’t need to prioritize him on the waivers list.

Devaughn Vele, Broncos (0%)

The Broncos have a lot to deal with on offense…

However, when we see a rookie getting opportunities early, it’s clearly an opportunity to come out on top. Devuaghn Vele is that guy. Vele has been giving it his all in training camp and appears to have overtaken both Troy Franklin and Marvin Mims in the rankings. He ran a route on 61 percent of Bo Nix’s dropbacks and was targeted eight times, all of which were caught.

Wan’Dale Robinson, Giants (10%)

Leading up to Monday’s game, Wan’Dale Robinson ranked second among all receivers with a dozen tackles from Daniel Jones. He caught six passes for 44 yards and added another 14 yards on a run attempt. Robinson is strictly a slot player who doesn’t run every route for the Giants, but he will be targeted when he’s out there and the Giants will run a lot of passes this year. Robinson is a good candidate for a PPR scam WR3 in the future.

Greg Dortch, Cardinals (5%)

Arizona’s Greg Dortch is a similar bet to Robinson. He plays in the slot. He comes off the field. But he still gets plenty of targets. Dortch had eight of 31 attempts to Kyler Murray, giving him a target share of 26 percent. Arizona’s offense looked more than functional against the Bills, while the Giants were obviously a disaster. Even if Robinson has a few more targets than Dortch, Dortch’s chances of reaching the end zone are far higher.

Tight End

Isaiah likely, Ravens (28%)

As we all expected, the TE1 of Week 1 was… Mark Andrews’ backup. He probably had a great performance against the Chiefs, scoring 26.1 PPR points.

Likely finished the day with a 9/111/1 receiving line on 12 targets. He ran a route on 69 percent of Lamar Jackson’s dropbacks and split his reps between an inline position and the slot. Unless he completely replaces Andrews, Likely won’t be able to maximize his routes. He also benefited greatly from Andrews being double-covered and facing cornerbacks an absurd amount of times.

Still, the Ravens don’t seem to have much to work with at WR2. Likely is their best bet to fill that role. As for the FAAB bid, I’m still skeptical about Andrew’s rebounding and Likely’s TE2 numbers. I’d spend a maximum of a third of my FAAB budget, which probably means I won’t get much from him.

Tucker Kraft, Packers (2%)

Luke Musgrave played ahead of Tucker Kraft as a rookie, but the latter earned high praise from sportswriters late in the offseason and was a regular on the first team during training camp. In Week 1, Kraft out-ran Musgrave, running 30 routes while Musgrave ran just eight. Kraft ran a route on 79 percent of Jordan Love’s dropbacks. Love is expected to be out for a few weeks with a knee injury, so Kraft may have to wait for his superstar quarterback to return. If you can afford the roster spot and need a long-term solution at the tight end position, Kraft is your guy.

Juwan Johnson, Saints (3%)

The Saints used several tight ends in Week 1, and Foster Moreau ended up being the biggest winner. With 51 offensive snaps, he ranked second among all Saints players at the skill position, just one spot behind Chris Olave. He caught four passes for 43 yards and scored one score. Unfortunately, he suffered a concussion late in the game and his status for Week 2 is questionable at best. That opens up the opportunity for Juwan Johnson, who had a serviceable fantasy outing of his own, to dominate tight end snaps this week. He caught two passes for 26 yards and scored one score. If Johnson takes Moreau’s role into his own, he could push for low TE1 numbers.