Today’s task is “Booms and Busts for 2024”. We will try to present you the pros and cons of a handful of players.

Let’s be fair: Boomers are players with potential who don’t represent an obvious floor, and flops are players who could still be fantasy assets. The discussion will always be nuanced, and it’s up to you, dear reader, to decide what the information means for your teams and leagues.

Let’s get to the fun picks first. These players have exciting boom cases that we definitely want to draft.

2024 Fantasy BOOM Candidates

Isaiah probably, TE, Ravens

Baltimore often talks about using Likely and Mark Andrews together, but that’s rarely the case. Likely probably has no tangible fantasy value as long as Andrews is healthy. But Andrews has played just one of six seasons as a pro – he missed seven games last year – and when Andrews is unavailable, Likely often thrives. Consider the eight starts Likely has made without Andrews; they’ve combined for 30 catches, 449 yards, six touchdowns – impressive numbers.

Jaylen Wright, WR, Dolphins

Miami’s offense is all about speed, and Wright brings impressive production to the table – a 4.38-second 40-yard dash time and 7.4 yards per carry at Tennessee last year. Miami offensive designer Mike McDaniel prefers a two-back system, meaning Wright could become a fantasy plug-and-play if Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane get injured. Consider that Mostert is entering his 32nd season and Achane missed six games last year; I suspect Wright will be a hot fantasy commodity sometime in 2024.

Justin Fields, quarterback, Steelers

I’m not sure Fields will ever be a great pro quarterback, given his high sack rate and average passing stats. But fantasy managers know Fields has upside here, tied to Fields’ electrifying running ability. Fields had five top-four QB finishes last season, and four of those came on high run volume. If Russell Wilson gets injured or benched in 2024, we’ll have Fields on speed dial. And in leagues with stronger QBs, Fields deserves consideration as a stash-and-hope pick.

Malik Nabers, WR, Giants

As much as the market loves Arizona rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., many scouts thought Nabers could be the jewel of the 2024 receiver class. Head coach Brian Daboll plans to throw a lot of volume at Nabers right from the start, and maybe quarterback Daniel Jones can be saved.

Just two years ago, Jones had an above-league-average quarterback rating and the lowest interception rate in the league. The Giants also finished 9-6-1 that year.

Even if you don’t really trust Jones, Daboll and Nabers still make a spicy cocktail.

Diontae Johnson, WR, Panthers

Johnson has always been a favorite of route-charting fans and his new setup may be better than you think. Head coach Dave Canales has orchestrated the comebacks of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield over the past two years and it’s too early to say that second-string quarterback Bryce Young won’t be able to play. If Canales can coach Young, Johnson has the potential to crush the ADP.

It was fun to dream about uptrends, wasn’t it? Now we need to tackle the downtrend and discuss some possible bust phases.

2024 Fantasy BUST Candidates

Saquon Barkley, RB, Eagles

Barkley was a monster when he first came to the NFL. As a rookie, he led the league in yards from scrimmage and averaged 5.6 yards per touch in his first two years. He hasn’t been the same player since, averaging a modest 4.0 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per touch. The New York offensive line didn’t do much for him, but it’s debatable how much injuries have robbed Barkley of his athleticism.

The move to Philadelphia should allow Barkley to have better blocks and play more effectively. But quarterback Jalen Hurts might not be good for Barkley’s fantasy value. After all, Hurts’ unstoppable butt-pushing gives him plenty of room at the goal line, and Hurts rarely targets his running backs in the passing game.

Don’t hold on to the great memories of young Barkley, because this electrifying runner is probably gone forever.

Davante Adams, WR, Raiders

I think back to October 30th of last year, a Monday night in Detroit. The Raiders were barely in form that night, managing just 157 yards of offense and getting crushed by the Lions. Josh McDaniels was fired after that game, while Jimmy Garoppolo lost his starting spot for good.

It was the most frustrating day of Adams’ season. He was targeted seven times – most of them missed – and made one catch for 11 yards. But how much better is the current lineup?

The Raiders have a shaky quarterback unit; Gardner Minshew somehow earned the starting spot despite a poor 48.5 percent completion rate over the summer. Adams is entering his 32nd season, so some deterioration in his skills is to be expected. Head coach Antonio Pierce would like to control games with a solid defense and a conservative offense, which limits the upside of the passing game. I didn’t consider Adams once this draft season.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Browns

Once upon a time, Watson was an undeniable star. But his last productive season was four years ago, and for much of the 2023 season, he was completely lost. Is it possible he’s permanently lost the poise and confidence needed to succeed at the most important position in the sport? It’s also plausible that head coach Kevin Stefanski could start hiding Watson on offense rather than putting him front and center. Watson is nowhere near my 2024 target list.

Aaron Rodgers, quarterback, Jets

I’d love to see Rodgers have a strong comeback season, especially so the theoretical upside of Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson can become a reality. But I wonder if what Tom Brady did in his 40s has made the fantasy market unrealistic about what’s possible for a quarterback of advanced age. If Rodgers reaches 200 points this year in his 41st season, he’ll be just the fourth quarterback to reach that mark so late in the game, joining Brady, Warren Moon and Drew Brees. Remember, Brett Favre (41), Peyton Manning (39) and Moon (42) were all ineffective in their final years. Eventually, the bus leaves town for everyone.

Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs

Kelce is too crafty and experienced to disappear, but the Chiefs did a good job of limiting Kelce’s workload last season and then letting him loose in the playoffs. I suspect that load management strategy will be used again this year, and it’s an easier sell now that the Chiefs have upgraded the wide receiver room. It’s not very likely that Kelce will get his expected ADP back.