Rising welterweight contender Sean Brady faces former title challenger Gilbert Burns in the main event of UFC Fight Night at UFC Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday night (7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, prelims at 4 p.m. on ESPN+).

Brady, No. 9 in ESPN’s welterweight rankings, comes into the fight having defeated Kelvin Gastelum by third-round submission in his last fight. Burns, ESPN’s No. 6 welterweight ranking, has lost back-to-back fights to Belal Muhammad and Jack Della Maddalena, respectively.

In addition, Bellator returns on Saturday after a nearly three-month hiatus. The promoter will host the next edition of the Bellator Champions Series in San Diego, with lightweight champion Usman Nurmagomedov putting his title on the line against Alexander Shabliy.

Brett Okamoto spoke with ESPN analyst and veteran MMA coach Din Thomas to get his take on the UFC’s main event. ESPN betting expert Ian Parker provides insight and analysis on this weekend’s two main events and other interesting bets he likes.

Editor’s note: Responses have been edited for brevity and clarity.

Welterweight: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady

Din Thomas, ESPN analyst and experienced MMA trainer

How Burns wins: It comes down to his power. I can’t imagine Gilbert being able to out-wrestle Sean at this level, but if he lands a big punch, it could be huge. Even if it’s not a knockout, it could change the course of the fight. Gilbert just has that switch. He’s so good at finding that punch because he’s a powerful athlete. He also has an underrated kicking game. I remember thinking that when I cornered him with Tyron Woodley. His kicks are more powerful than people think.

How Brady wins: It comes down to Sean’s ability to maintain a high level of performance during a fight that is fought at a high pace. He is very good at maintaining that pace and staying strong throughout the fight, and if he can do that, he will eventually find a weakness in Gilbert’s game. That pace just creates openings, and we’ve seen that Gilbert tends to get a little wild when there’s a lot of action. When you get wild, you use up more energy. I think that pace will work in Sean’s favor.

X-Factor: Sean’s punching power is sometimes underestimated and could surprise Gilbert.

Forecast: *Thomas will work in Brady’s corner in addition to his role as a UFC analyst*

Betting analysis

Odds correct at time of publication. For the latest odds visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Burns wins (+150). It’s surprising that Brady goes into this fight as a nearly 2-1 favorite. Burns is the better striker standing up, but the fight will be a closely contested one when it goes to the ground. Brady is a top-heavy wrestler and grappler, but Burns is one of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu fighters in the world. Often times when two grapplers fight each other, it turns into a five-round kickboxing match. If that happens here, lean toward Burns as the underdog. I don’t think Brady will be able to tag him out or out-punch him. The only way Brady can win is to beat Burns for five rounds, but I wouldn’t bet on that.

Bellator lightweight title: Usman Nurmagomedov vs. Alexandr Shabliy

How Nurmagomedov wins: Usman is going to have to rely on his wrestling, which is what they normally do. That Dagestani style, he’s going to have to use that. He’s going to have to go out there, keep Alexandr on his toes and then wrestle him and control him. Alexandr is slippery, but if Usman can take him down and control him, he should win that way.

How Shabliy wins: He’s really quick on his feet, disciplined, sharp and precise. But against Dagestani wrestlers, you can’t out-box these guys, you can’t tire them out, but you can disrupt them by hurting them. Alexandr can do that. He needs to hit Usman with a few body shots that hurt him so he doesn’t go full throttle.

X-Factor: Usman’s movement while standing. If he moves well and combines his striking with his grappling, that will be a problem for Shabliy. Anytime someone threatens with strikes and takedowns, that gives him an advantage while standing. If his movement is smooth and consistent, he could even hurt Shabliy while standing.

forecast: Nurmagomedov. Everyone fights the same way in the Dagestan style, and no one has figured it out yet. Until someone does, you can’t change the outcome.

Betting analysis

Odds correct at time of publication. For the latest odds visit ESPN BET.

Parker: Nurmagomedov wins; take the total number of rounds. At 17-0, Nurmagomedov looks to continue his winning streak against his opponent Shabliy. Shabliy has been on a tear lately, defeating Brent Primus, Tofiq Musayev, and Patricky “Pitbull” Freire. Shabliy is a technical striker with exceptional grappling. However, Nurmagomedov is simply an opponent on a different level for him. Look for Nurmagomedov to impose his will and turn this into a five-round wrestling match to avoid Shabliy’s strikes. Use Nurmagomedov as the anchor of your parlay or take the over as I expect this fight to go bell to bell.

Parker’s best tips for the rest of the weekend

Women’s Flyweight: Jessica Andrade vs. Natalia Silva

Over 2.5 rounds (-185); Silva wins by decision. Andrade has looked great in her last two fights, reeling off two straight wins, but I don’t think she’ll win here. Standing up, Andrade has power, but Silva is the better striker with more volume and accuracy. When she hits the ground, Silva has seven submissions to her name and she has the jiu-jitsu skills to fend off Andrade.

I have two plays for this fight. Over 2.5 rounds is -185 and I love that spot. Silva’s last two fights against quality competition went the distance. Andrade’s last fight against Marina Rodriguez also went to the final bell. I think Silva stays standing and uses her distance strikes, which leads to my second play, Silva wins by decision.

Flyweight, Men: Matt Schnell vs. Cody Durden

Under 2.5 rounds. A quick heads up for Durden? No problem. Both fighters keep pushing forward, looking for the finish. Quick is as tough as can be, but his chin just doesn’t hold up and I don’t expect it to be any different this time. With Durden fresh off a KO loss, he might be hesitant to get up and strike, so I expect him to use his ring skills a little. Once he gets the upper hand on the mat, Durden will likely finish the fight.

Lightweight: Trevor Peek vs. Yanal Ashmouz

Ashmouz wins (equal). Grab your popcorn for this fight. Peek vs. Ashmouz will be action-packed and is probably the favorite for the fight of the night. Both are extremely durable and will often try to knock out the opponent. However, Ashmouz will stay under the radar against Peek, who is less technical. Peek will try to throw sledgehammer-like punches, but he is not particularly precise and if he doesn’t knock out his opponent first, he usually loses.