WASHINGTON: An American historian called the “Election Nostradamus“, because they have correctly guessed nine of the last ten presidential elections, says that Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States.
Prof Allan Lichtman predicts the outcome of the US presidential election not on the basis of polls and surveys, but on the basis of “13 keys” that he developed in 1981 with his friend, geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. These include metrics such as incumbency, interim gains, third-party candidates, short-term economy, long-term economy, social unrest, White House Scandal, charisma of the incumbent and the challenger, failures and successes in foreign policy.
His appeal for 2024: Kamala Harris has the key to the White House.
Most famously, he predicted Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016 (against all expectations and poll projections), although some critics claim he actually predicted Trump would win the majority of the popular vote (Hillary Clinton won by nearly 3 million more votes). His only miss came in 2000, when he predicted Al Gore would win against George Bush – and even then he was technically correct, considering Gore won the majority of the popular vote and the electoral votes were decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.
For the 2024 race, Lichtman says eight of his key factors favor Kamala Harris, while three favor Trump. Key factors favoring Trump include that the White House party gained seats in the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections; the incumbent president is running for reelection (though he was replaced by his running mate); and Harris, in his view, lacks the charisma that Lichtman defines as a “unique, universally inspiring” candidate.
The remaining two key factors, including a foreign policy failure or a foreign policy success, could still turn in Trump’s favor before the election, he says, but the eight that go in Harris’s favor would be enough to secure her the White House.
Harris remains ahead in most conventional polls, but two months before Election Day, her lead is within the margin of error, even though early voting in many states begins the week after the September 10 presidential debate.
Both sides boast defections from opposite ranks: The Trump camp claimed on Tuesday that the estranged brother of Harris’ running mate Tim Walz and other family members are supporting her. On Wednesday, the Harris camp boasted of the support of former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney, the daughter of former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, who served under George Bush. Cheney, an arch-conservative, said she was voting for Harris because Trump poses a threat to the United States.
Prof Allan Lichtman predicts the outcome of the US presidential election not on the basis of polls and surveys, but on the basis of “13 keys” that he developed in 1981 with his friend, geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. These include metrics such as incumbency, interim gains, third-party candidates, short-term economy, long-term economy, social unrest, White House Scandal, charisma of the incumbent and the challenger, failures and successes in foreign policy.
His appeal for 2024: Kamala Harris has the key to the White House.
Most famously, he predicted Donald Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016 (against all expectations and poll projections), although some critics claim he actually predicted Trump would win the majority of the popular vote (Hillary Clinton won by nearly 3 million more votes). His only miss came in 2000, when he predicted Al Gore would win against George Bush – and even then he was technically correct, considering Gore won the majority of the popular vote and the electoral votes were decided by the U.S. Supreme Court.
For the 2024 race, Lichtman says eight of his key factors favor Kamala Harris, while three favor Trump. Key factors favoring Trump include that the White House party gained seats in the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections; the incumbent president is running for reelection (though he was replaced by his running mate); and Harris, in his view, lacks the charisma that Lichtman defines as a “unique, universally inspiring” candidate.
The remaining two key factors, including a foreign policy failure or a foreign policy success, could still turn in Trump’s favor before the election, he says, but the eight that go in Harris’s favor would be enough to secure her the White House.
Harris remains ahead in most conventional polls, but two months before Election Day, her lead is within the margin of error, even though early voting in many states begins the week after the September 10 presidential debate.
Both sides boast defections from opposite ranks: The Trump camp claimed on Tuesday that the estranged brother of Harris’ running mate Tim Walz and other family members are supporting her. On Wednesday, the Harris camp boasted of the support of former Republican congresswoman Liz Cheney, the daughter of former U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, who served under George Bush. Cheney, an arch-conservative, said she was voting for Harris because Trump poses a threat to the United States.
